Dollar retreats despite fears from job market – weekly

The dollar finishes the week lower against most currencies this week. The fear that ruled last week wasn’t fueled by the terrible American job market, and the blurry rate decision by the Fed. The horizon isn’t clear with this jobless recovery. Here’s an overview of this week in forex trading.

The US Dollar Index retreated this week from 76.21 to 75.74, similar to the close about two weeks ago, before last week’s big comeback. It’s hard to say that last week’s surge was a short episode, or that this week’s stall was only temporary.

The rate decision by the Federal Reserve was expected: no change of wording – almost copy pasted from the previous FOMC Statement. In my post about 4 scenarios for the Fed decision, I gave this option the highest probability, but I hoped for something more interesting.

Some currencies did better than others this week:

• EUR/USD began the week by not believing the good figures in the US. It later went up, “erased” the 1.4842 resistance line and even reached 1.4917. It’s about to close at 1.4845, making a weekly gain of almost 150 pips. Check out Casey Stubbs’ latest EUR/USD technical coverage.
• GBP/USD enjoyed another positive week, riding on the favorable rate decision from Mervyn King to rise from 1.64 to 1.66, a neat 200 pips gain. Resistance is close.
• USD/JPY rose all the way to 91.31 but fell back down, and is about to close at almost the same level as week – 89.80. The Japanese Yen enjoyed last week’s fear, and stalled this week.
• USD/CHF: The Swiss Franc made gains against the dollar, and went down from 1.0260 to 1.0178, nearly 200 pips lower, and not too far from parity.
• USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar was hit by bad employment figures that erased last month’s impressing job figures. It  made rather minor gains against the US dollar. At 1.0744, it gained less than 100 pips.
• AUD/USD: Glenn Stevens raised the rates again up to 3.5%. The expected move was initially dismissed by the markets, but the Aussie got back on its feet and at 0.9156, AUD/USD is closing the week with almost 200 fresh pips. Check out Mohammed Isah’s latest AUD/USD technical analysis.
• NZD/USD: After last week’s disappointing rate decision that didn’t meet expectations, the kiwi recovered and gained more than 100 pips to 0.7250, after already passing 0.73.

That’s it for this week. Weekly  forecasts will be published towards the opening of the new week. Have a great weekend!