The US dollar traded broadly mixed in Asia on the final trading day of this week, divided between the renewed US-China trade deal optimism and risk-off action in the Asian equities.
Amongst the Asia-pac currencies, the Chinese Yuan pulled back from two-month lows against the American dollar and traded firmer following the upbeat remarks from the Chinese President Xi on the exchange rate. The Antipodeans also got a boost and cheered better domestic fundamentals, with the Aussie flirting near daily tops at 0.7032 while the NZD/USD pair headed back to the 0.6650 level. The USD/JPY pair enjoyed good two-way businesses between 111.45-111.80 range amid mixed Japanese data dump, negative Asian equities and trade optimism. Also, markets readjusted their JPY positions heading into the 10-day Japanese holiday break.
On the commodities front, both crude benchmarks were a shade lower while gold futures regained 1280 barrier, with main focus now on the US Q1 growth figures due later today.
Main Topics in Asia
NZ: Strong trade surplus in March – Westpac
Larry Kudlow to Newsmax TV: Fed may lower rates further – NewsMax
Bank of Canada Governor Poloz: Need to allow time for housing slowdown to be sorted out and …
May drops plan for new Brexit vote before local elections – Financial Times
UK Press: PM May urged to back fresh amendment to remove Irish backstop from deal
Gold again aims for $1280 break as traders remain cautious
Australia: Q1 goods terms of trade for goods strengthened by 5.0% – Westpac
WTI Technical Analysis: Will the bulls commit or get squeezed out of rising wedge?
US Pres. Trump: Working on a great trade deal with Chinese President Xi
China’s Presi. Xi: Will not pursue Yuan depreciation that harms others
Japan’s Motegi: Forex wasn’t a topic at US trade talks
Japan strongly opposes linking FX to trade
Goldman Sachs ups US Q1 GDP forecast to 2.6% y/y
USD/CNH pulls back from two-month highs
Key Focus Ahead
Another quiet macro calendar for the EUR, GBP traders and hence, the overall risk sentiment, Brexit updates and dollar trades will continue to drive the fx space. However, the second-liner data from the UK could offer some trading incentives. The UK BBA mortgage approvals is due at 0830 GMT while the UK CBI industrial trends survey – orders will drop in at 1000 GMT. Also, of note remains the speech by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chair Jordan, in light of the recent CHF weakness.
All eyes remain on the NA session, with the US Q1 advance GDP report likely to headline and is expected to surprise the markets to the upside after cheerful US retail sales and durable goods data. The US the economy is likely to have expanded at an annualized rate of 2.1 percent in the first quarter, having registered a growth rate of 2.2 percent in the preceding quarter. Markets also look forward to the revised UoM consumer sentiment and Baker Hughes oil rigs count data that will wrap up a holiday-thinned trading week.
EUR/USD: Focus on US GDP, US dollar vulnerable to sell the fact trade
EUR/USD may see a corrective bounce if the preliminary first-quarter US GDP reading matches or fails to beat expectations by a big margin.
GBP/USD re-takes 1.2900 amid Brexit pessimism, US GDP eyed
GBP/USD revisits 1.2900 mark while heading into the London open on Friday as investors rushed to take their greenback profits off ahead of US GDP whereas the absence of major Brexit negative news off-late also favors the pullback.
US Q1 GDP growth was probably at about 2%, possible stronger – Scotia bank
Analysts at Scotia bank believe that the US GDP growth is likely to be stronger in the first quarter despite the impact of the government shutdown. The US Q1 GDP report is due to be published later today at 1230 GMT.
Week Ahead – Fed, NFP, Eurozone GDP and BoE to inject life into subdued FX markets
After a lackluster couple of weeks for foreign exchange markets, trading volumes are expected to return to somewhat more normal levels over the next seven days with plenty of risk events on the horizon.
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