Risk sentiment soured in Tuesday’s light Asian trading after the Chinese manufacturing sector activity disappointed markets and re-ignited China slowdown worries. As a result, the risk assets such as the Asian equities, oil and the Antipodeans took a hit while the safe-havens gold and the JPY were offered some fresh lift. Meanwhile, the US dollar continued to remain on the defensive across its main competitors, despite higher Treasury yields.
Amongst the Asia-pac currencies, the AUD/USD pair slipped to 0.7035 lows on poor Chinese PMI reports while the Kiwi traded on the back foot near 0.6660 levels. The USD/JPY pair fell back below the 200-day SMA near 111.550amid risk-aversion.
Meanwhile, both the European currencies, the EUR and the pound, were better bid heading into a busy EUR session and the cross-party Brexit talks. The Loonie continued to suffer from the recent oil-price weakness, with the USD/CAD pair holding near session tops of 1.3469.
Main Topics in Asia
Terry Mccrann: Rate cut next week possible but unlikely – Herald Sun
UK GFK Consumer Confidence stubbornly marks -13 – Full Report
UK consumers unfazed by Brexit storm, firms more upbeat – Lloyds Bank survey
China Non-manufacturing and NBS Manufacturing (April) PMIs softer than expected (AUD off 27 pips)
PBoC to skip open market operations
China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI unexpectedly drops to 50.2 in April (Aussie weaker)
WTI: Bears eyeing $63.00 mark amid tepid sentiment
USD/IDR technical analysis: Pulls back sharply from session highs, channel breakout elusive
US 10-year-2-year treasury yield spread hits highest since Nov 29
Gold: Probing 50-hour MA amid treasury yield curve steepening
Key Focus Ahead
Markets buckle up for a data-heavy EUR/ NA calendar that paves the way for a busy week ahead. The German import price index and Gfk consumer confidence (due at 0600 GMT) kicks-off a hectic session ahead, followed by the Spanish Q1 GDP numbers at 0700 GMT.
Next of relevance remains the German unemployment rate due at 0755 GMT and the Eurozone prelim flash GDP for the first quarter that will drop in at 0900 GMT alongside the bloc’s jobless rate. The Eurozone Q1 GDP growth rate is seen accelerating 0.3% q/q vs. 0.2% rise seen previously while on an annualized basis, the rate is seen steadying at 1.1% in Q1. The focus will also remain on the Italian growth figures slated for release at 1000 GMT while the German Prelim CPI at 1200 GMT will be also closely eyed for fresh direction on the EUR.
Moving on, the NA traders will look forward to the key Canadian GDP data for the month of February due at 1230 GMT. Meanwhile, the US CB consumer confidence and pending home sales data will grab some attention at 1400 GMT among other minority reports.
Apart from the macro data releases, a slew of speeches by the global central bankers is scheduled for today.
0740 GMT: BOE MPC member Ramsden
1500 GMT: BOC Governor Poloz
1500 GMT: BOC board member Wilkins
EUR/USD revisits former support-turned-hurdle ahead of key Eurozone/ German data
The EUR may rise to 1.12 or higher if the German jobs data and the Eurozone GDP beat estimates. The rise, however, could be reversed if Germany’s preliminary consumer price inflation (CPI) prints below the estimate of a 0.5% month-on-month rise.
GBP/USD struggles to break 2-week old resistance-line amid UK political uncertainty
Given the absence of the UK data highlights Brexit talks, the US pending home sales, consumer confidence, and Chicago purchasing managers’ index can direct near-term moves from the US side.
Euro-zone GDP preview: Expectations may be too high and EUR/USD could fall
The euro-zone publishes the preliminary read of Q1 GDP on Tuesday, April 30th, at 9:00 GMT. In Q4, the economies of the 19-country bloc grew by 1.1%, a meager rate.
Canada GDP preview: Activity data for February was mixed on balance – TDS
Analysts at TD Securities offer a sneak peek at what to expect from Tuesday’s Canadian February GDP data release due on the cards at 1230 GMT.
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