Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, March 31:
The US dollar is rising alongside yields, ahead of Biden’s critical speech on the economy. Europe continues struggling with the virus and vaccines. Eurozone inflation, ADP’s jobs figures, and Canadian GDP stand out on the calendar.
Infrastructure spending: US President Joe Biden is set to present a massive, $2 trillion fiscal package over eight years, which will likely include classic infrastructure spending, green initiatives, and also investment in human capital. The White House is also mulling tax hikes along 15 years, but it remains unclear if such a move would be introduced in the first phase.
Biden’s new plan comes on top of the covid relief program which has already contributed to lifting consumer confidence.
Conference Board Consumer Confidence rockets to 12-month high, dollar follows
Gold has been under immense pressure following the increase of yields, slipping below $1,700 and remaining there.
ADP’s private-sector jobs report is set to show a leap of over half a million positions in March. The payroll firm’s figures have not been well-correlated to the official Nonfarm Payrolls figures, but tend to move markets.
ADP Private Payrolls March Preview: Consumers look to an early spring?
Liquidation: Investors are still trying to grasp the scale of Archegos’ capitulation. Credit Suisse has been hit hard but it remains unclear if the multi-billion hedge fund crash is a one-off or a “canary in the coalmine” for the entire financial system.
Flows: The last day of the first quarter is also the final day of Japan’s fiscal year and may trigger choppy movements as money managers scramble to adjust their portfolios. That may explain some of the sharp upward moves in USD/JPY, which is marching toward 111.
GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3750 after UK Gross Domestic Product figures were upgraded to 1.3% growth in the fourth quarter. Sterling continues benefiting from Britain’s successful vaccination campaign.
EUR/USD is under pressure, trading closer to 1.17 as the old continent continues struggling with rising COVID-19 cases. Germany banned the use of AstraZeneca’s vaccines for those under 60 after additional cases of blood clots among young women. Eurozone Consumer Price Index figures are set to show a yearly rise of 1.4%. The expected increase in inflation is a result of base effects.
USD/CAD is trading around 1.26 as oil prices stabilize after the reopening of the Suez Canal. Canada’s GDP statistics are set to show growth in January 2021.
Brazil is suffering from an intense wave of coronavirus that has caused a considerable political crisis. South America’s largest nation is responsible for a quarter of global deaths with only 3% of the population. The army’s top brass resigned after the departure of the defense minister as President Jair Bolsonaro’s handling of the disease remain questionable.
Bitcoin is trading close to $60,000 after PayPal joined Visa in accommodating the cryptocurrency. Ethereum is also on the rise, changing hands above $1,800.
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