Amid lack of certainty on the US-China trade deal prospects and China’s first Repo rate cut since 2015, the market mood remained cautiously optimistic in Asia, starting out this week on Monday. Moreover, the ongoing Hong Kong civil turmoil also kept the risk tone somewhat fragile. As a result, the Asian equities traded mixed while the weakness in the US Treasury yields left the US dollar broadly undermined.
Most G10 currencies stuck to tight trading ranges, although the Cable emerged the top gainer and headed towards 1.2950 on increased hopes of UK PM Johnson’s re-election. The weakest of all was the Aussie, followed by the anti-risk Japanese yen. AUD/USD pair consolidated the recent recovery above the 0.6800 level while USD/JPY traded with mild gains around 108.80, with the upside capped by the 200-DMA at 109.00. The Kiwi remained modestly flat around the 0.64 handle. Meanwhile, the EUR/USD pair clocked fresh one-week highs at 1.1065. On the other hand, USD/CAD lacked momentum above 1.3200, as oil prices remained flat under the $ 58 mark. Gold prices, however, eased towards $ 1460 on the Chinese rate cut announcement.
Main Topics in Asia
UK election: Poll shows Conservatives hold the top spot – GBP/USD Positive
US Pres. Trump hails ‘cash’ to farmers, U.S. aid in China trade war – Reuters
China and US had constructive discussions about phase one deal – Xinhua
UK’s Raab: It’s not “remotely likely” that UK could leave without a deal, Cable tested 1.2930
Hong Kong’s civil unrest only gets worse, university campus entrance set ablaze after all night stand-off
Fed’s Daly: “We can keep the policy rate accommodative”
UK housing market hit by Brexit and election double-whammy – Rightmove survey
11th US-China Political Leaders Dialogue kicks off in Beijing – Global Times
Sources: US to extend license for its companies to continue business with Huawei – Reuters
Senior US Official: Monitoring events in Hong Kong, condemns “unjustified use of force
China’s DefenceMin Spokesman Wu: Ending Hong Kong violence and restoring order is the most pressing task
Asian stocks flash mixed signals amid trade hopes, Hong Kong protests
Key Focus Ahead
We have a quiet start to the relatively calm week ahead, in terms of the macroeconomic releases and hence, the UK political updates and US-China trade developments will remain the central focus.
As for Monday’s EUR calendar, the speeches from the European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers will headline alongside the German Bundesbank (Buba) monthly economic report. The UK docket remains absolutely data-empty while the US session also sees an absence of significant first-tier economic news.
Key ECB-speak ahead
0900 GMT – ECB’s De Guindos
1300 GMT – ECB De Cos
1320 GMT – ECB’s Lane
EUR/USD sits at weekly tops above 1.1050, eyes on ECB-speak, trade
EUR/USD is seen building on its last week’ s recovery above the 1.1050 level, having hit weekly highs at 1.1065 on mild US dollar weakness across the board. The bulls consolidate the latest uptick, awaiting fresh trading impetus heading into the European open.
GBP/USD confronts near-term key resistance amid Brexit optimism
GBP/USD cheers increasing odds of Tory leadership. US-China trade hopes, military tension and Russian meddling in British politics keep the gains in check. UK PM’s speech, US Housing numbers and trade/Brexit headlines will be in focus.
GBP/USD Forecast: All aboard the Boris bus? Downside momentum dims outlook
GBP/USD has been rising alongside the Conservatives’ reelection chances. Opinion polls, trade headlines, and further Fed news are set to determine the next cable moves. Mid-November’s daily chart is pointing to falling momentum for the pound.
UK PM Johnson will pledge an end to Brexit uncertainty at CBI event later on Monday
Speaking at the Confederation of British Industry’s (CBI) annual conference scheduled later on Monday, the UK PM Johnson is expected to show his commitment to end the Brexit uncertainty that has ‘paralyzed’ the economy.
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