Forex Today witnessed resurgent Yen demand in Asia, as risk sentiment continued to remain sour amid escalating global trade war fears, with the higher-yielding/ risk assets taking a beating across the board. The Asian stocks were hammered by risk-off trades while the Antipodeans traded on the back foot amid a lack of fresh fundamental drivers while the weakness in the Chinese currency also added to the weight on the OZ currencies.
Among commodities, both crude benchmarks remained supported amid Libyan supply disruption concerns while gold prices failed to benefit from risk-aversion and a broadly subdued US dollar.
Main topics in Asia
Trump officials send mixed signals on China – Reuters
As reported by Reuters, members of the Trump administration are sending conflicting signals about the US’ stance towards foreign investment in American companies, and “¦
France’s Le Maire: Europe will respond to US tariffs if provoked
France’s Finance Minister, Bruno Le Maire, is addressing media outlets today, speaking about Europe’s stance towards trade tariffs being threatened by the US, as well as the ongoing political push for a more unified Europe.
Trade war risks now more than just talk – Goldman Sachs
In an interview with Bloomberg TV, Goldman Sachs Asset Management International Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Sheila Patel expressed her take on the latest trade war fears.
NZIER recommends no change to RNBZ cash rate
Christina Leung, Principal Economist at the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) was out with their Monetary Policy Shadow Board’s recommendation on the upcoming Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) monetary policy decision.
Japan PM Abe: BOJ’s easing is not aimed at weakening Yen
Comments from Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe are crossing the wires via Reuters “¦
China’s Yuan drops to lowest since December 28
The USD/CNY pair rose to 6.5552 on Tuesday – the highest level since December 28, possibly due to PBOC’s liquidity injection.
SNB’s Maechler: The franc remains ‘highly valued’
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) board member Andrea Maechler is on the wires now, reiterating the exchange rate rhetoric in an interview with CNN.
Key Focus ahead
Markets head into a data-light EUR calendar for the second straight trading day while the headlines around the trade war issue continue to drive the sentiment. There is nothing on the cards from the Euroland and hence, the focus remains on the second-liner UK mortgage approvals and CBI Realized Sales for some trading impetus.
However, the testimony by the newly appointed Bank of England (BOE) MPC member Haskel before the Treasury Select Committee (TSC) will be eyed for fresh hints on the UK’s interest rates outlook while BOE member McCafferty is due to speak about monetary policy at the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum, in London.
Also, the European Central Bank (ECB Governing Council members Hansson and Guindos are scheduled to speak later in the session ahead.
In the NA session, the US Conference Board consumer confidence data is slated for release among other minority reports. A dip in the consumer confidence is expected (127.6) in the reported versus 128.0 last. Besides, Fedspeaks will hog the limelight, with Bostic and Kaplan scheduled to speak at 1700 GMT and 1745 GMT respectively.
EUR/USD is charting a double bottom reversal, risk-off could weigh on the USD
The EUR/USD rose to a 12-day high of 1.1721 in Asia and could rise further towards 1.1852 (double top neckline) as the trade fears and the resulting risk aversion in the US stock markets could keep the greenback under pressure.
GBP/USD keeping a close eye on 1.33, but so far unable to make contact
The early week for the GBP is a thin showing on the economic calendar, though a couple of speeches from MPC members could bring some activity. MPC members Haskel and McCafferty are giving a set of speeches, beginning at 09:00 and 09:30 GMT respectively.
H2 2018: Seven key risks ahead – JP Morgan
Analysts at JP Morgan highlight seven key risks, in its latest outlook report, as we head towards the second half of this year.
Emerging Market currencies to extend weakness into H2 2018 – Barclays
In its latest FX outlook for H2 2018, the Barclays Research Team notes that the US dollar is likely to be the preferred currency amid trade war fears and Fed’s monetary policy tightening.
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