Forex Weekly Outlook April 4-8

The US dollar was hit hard by Yelle’s dovish tone and the recovery was limited. Yellen has another opportunity to move the greenback in the upcoming week. In addition, a rate decision in Australia,  the  US Non-Manufacturing PMI  and the FOMC meeting minutes stand out. These are the highlights of this week. Here is an outlook on the coming financial events.

The  Non-Farm  Payrolls  report showed US economy gained 215,000 jobs in March, reaffirming the strength of the labor market, despite recent economic headwinds. The reading was higher than the 206,000 forecast but not enough to maintain February’s low unemployment rate which increased to 5.0%. Nevertheless average hourly earnings edged up 7% representing a 2.3 percent annualized again. The retail sector showed the biggest increase with 48,000 new jobs, while construction and health care added 37,000 each.  The report was very good but it is unlikely that it would change the Fed’s decision to postpone its rate hike plans.  Let’s start,

1. Australian rate decision: Tuesday, 1:30. The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its cash unchanged at 2% in March, but hinted it may cut rates in the near future. Governor Glenn Stevens reiterated the downside risks in low inflation noting it may induce the RBA to cut rates. The Employment market also concerns the central bank after a surprise jump in the unemployment rate. Furthermore, global market uncertainty raises fears of future growth. Economists expect the RBA will cut interest rates to 1.5% this year.
2. US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Tuesday, 14:00. The U.S. service sector expanded in February reaching 53.4 a bit lower than the 53.5 posted in the previous month. The reading was higher than the 53.2 figure expected by analysts. Business activity index increased to 57.8 from 53.9 the month before. Employment index fell to 49.7 from 52.1 a month earlier, showing the first decline since February 2014. New orders dropped to 55.5 from 56.5. The prices paid index fell to 45.5 from 46.4.  US service sector is expected to expand further to 54.1 in March.
3. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 14:30. U.S. crude inventories increased 2.3 million barrels in the last week, falling short of the 3.3 million-barrel gain forecasted by analysts. Oil prices were boosted by the weak dollar becoming more attractive to users of the euro and other currencies. OPEC oil output increased in March, amid higher supply from Iran.
4. US FOMC Meeting Minutes: Wednesday, 18:00. The FOMC minutes from the Fed’s January meeting showed the main topic of concern was the continuing deterioration of global financial and their downside risks to the U.S. economy. On the opposite side, some” members noted that wage pressures had increased. Overall the minutes indicate that an easing in global volatility, together with continued improvement in the domestic labor market and inflation, could bring another rate hike in the following months.
5. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of new claims for unemployment  aid edged up unexpectedly  last week, but remained below the 300,000 line indicating strong employment market. Claims increased 11,000 to a seasonally adjusted 276,000, higher than the 267,000 forecast. The four-week moving average of claims increased by 3,500 to 263,250 last week. Economists expect nonfarm payrolls to increase 205,000 this month following a 242,000 gain in February. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.9%. Economists expect 271,000 increase in the number of claims this week.
6. Janet Yellen speaks: Thursday, 21:30. Fed Chair Janet Yellen will speak in New York at the International House. She may talk about the recent positive employment data and the resilient consumer spending and may also refer to her pessimistic views on Global economy and its downside risks to the US economy. Market volatility is expected.
7. Canadian employment data: Friday, 12:30. Canada’s employment market contracted unexpectedly in February losing 2,300 jobs raising jobless rate to 7.3%.  The unemployment rate climbed to the highest level since March 2013 surprising analysts who had forecast Canada would add almost 10,200 jobs. Most of the job cuts were full-time, losing 52,000 jobs during the month. That figure was partially offset by an increase in part-time work.

That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies

*All times are GMT.

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