Forex Weekly Outlook – August 24-28 2009

The last week of August brings revised GDP figures in the US and Britain,  Durable Goods Orders and more important releases. What will be the dollar’s direction this week? Here’s the weekly outlook.

The US dollar made some late gains on Friday afternoon. The Jackson Hole conference going on during the weekend, with the positive feeling can also impact the beginning of the forex trading week. But very soon, new data will pour in and set the direction. Let’s look at the major events:

Monday, August 24th: British  Nationwide HPI will be published this week, probably on Monday. It’s expected to rise by 0.8%.

In Europe,  Industrial New Orders are due in the morning, and might help the Euro after the recent good European PMI figures.

In Canada, Retail Sales are expected to stay flat after the nice rise last time. Loonie traders, also note the Core Retail Sales.

Tuesday, August 25th: Quarterly Inflation Expectations start the day in New Zealand. It’s an important figure for the kiwi.

In Switzerland, the  UBS Consumption Indicator is released early in the morning. Later, Swiss  Employment Level is published and is followed by speeches by the heads of the SNB.

In Britain,  BBA Mortgage Approvals are expected to continue rising.  Belgium NBB Business Climate is also expected to improve.

In the US,  CB Consumer Confidence is expected to advance to 48.1 points. After last week’s surprising Existing Home Sales numbers, the  S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI is expected to show a smaller fall, and the HPI is expected to be on the rise. Will American housing bounce also in prices.

Japanese Trade Balance closes the day with an expected squeezing surplus.

Wednesday, August 26th: Australian  Construction Work Done is lagging behind other Australian indicators, and will probably continue to do so.

German Ifo Business Climate is expected to continue advancing, like the whole German economy.

American Durable Goods Orders  are predicted to bounce back after falling last time. Also note the Core  Durable Goods Orders which will probably remain stable.

The complementary figure for last week’s Existing Home Sales is the New Home Sales, which are estimated to rise as well.

Thursday, August 27th: Australian  CB Leading Index and then  Private Capital Expenditure start the day, and both are expected to show strength.

GfK German Consumer Climate will impact EUR/USD in a positive way, but the German Prelim CPI isn’t expected to show that Europe got rid of the deflation problems.

British  Prelim Business Investment is expected to remain negative, and will be a  warm up  for the British  CBI Realized Sales, which are also expected to remain in the red zone. Near the end of the day,  GfK Consumer Confidence is expected to get better.

American Prelim GDP, the revised figure for the second quarter, is expected to show a deeper contraction – 1.3%. At the same time, Unemployment Claims might get better this time…

Building Consents in New Zealand close the week in New Zealand. In Japan,  Household Spending  isn’t predicted to be very good, and the  Tokyo Core CPI is expected to show more deflation. Japanese  Unemployment Rate is also predicted to be on the rise, from 5.4% to 5.5%.

Friday, August 28th:  British Revised GDP supplies a strong start for the day. It isn’t expected to change from the initial reading of a 0.8% contraction in the second quarter.

The Swiss  KOF Economic Barometer is expected to improve, but still remain negative. Quite an important for those trading the Swissy.

Canadian  Current Account is predicted to deepen. Also the  RMPI (Raw Materials Price Index) is expected to fall despite rising oil prices.

In the US,  Core PCE Price Index  won’t ignite fear of deflation, and also  Personal Spending is expected to be stable. The  Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment will close the week, and is predicted to show an improvement from the initial reading.

That’s it for the major events this week. I’ll later publish coverages for the British Pound, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar and perhaps some other currencies.

Further reading:

• For the British Pound, check out the  GBP/USD Outlook.
• For the EUR/USD , read the  EUR/USD Outlook.
• For the Canadian dollar, read the  USD/CAD Outlook.
• For the Australian dollar, check out the  AUD/USD Outlook.