Forex Weekly Outlook August 5-9 – Digesting the drama and focusing on commodity currencies

The USD has had a roller-coaster week with the Fed. What’s next? The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, rate decisions from Australia and New Zealand, and UK GDP are all of interest to traders. Here the highlights for the next week.

 

1. US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Monday, 14:00. This forward-looking survey for America’s largest sector usually serves as a hint toward the Non-Farm Payrolls. This time, the data is published after the event, allowing it to stand on its own. Services have been growing at a satisfactory pace in June, with a score of 55.1 points – significantly above the 50-point threshold that separates contraction and expansion. A slowdown may be seen now.
2. New Zealand jobs report  Monday, 22:45. The small South-Pacific nation releases jobs figures only once per quarter -thus allowing a more significant impact on every release. Despite a low unemployment rate of 4.2% in the first quarter, the report sent the kiwi lower as the overall level of employment dropped by 0.2%. Better figures are likely now.
3. Australian rate decision: Tuesday, 4:30. After two rate cuts, the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to leave the interest rate unchanged at 1% now. Despite the Fed cut, Governor Phillip Lowe and his colleagues are set to pause and leave some ammunition for worse times. While the RBA would like to see a lower unemployment rate, inflation has come out above expectations and allows for higher rates.
4. New Zealand rate decision: Wednesday, 2:00, press conference at 4:00. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate decision significantly depends on the jobs report, but there is a substantial chance that Governor Adrian Orr and his colleagues will cut interest rates after May’s 25bp reduction from 1.75% to 1.50% and the pause in June. The RBNZ will have responded to recent trade tensions and the Fed’s rate cut, as well as some domestic concerns.
5. UK GDP (quarterly): Friday, 8:30. This Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report is for the full second quarter of the year, making it more impactful than the monthly releases. The British economy expanded by a robust pace of 0.5% in the first quarter of 2019 – but this growth was mostly driven by preparations for Brexit – that did not happen at the original March 29th date. Economic indicators for the second quarter have shown a significant slowdown and some fear the economy has suffered from contraction – opening the door to a recession. The pound and also the euro may be impacted by the data.
6. Canadian jobs report Friday, 12:30. Canada’s employment data usually have to compete with the US Non-Farm Payrolls for attention – but his time they have their time in the sun. The economy lost 2.2K positions in June, after several upbeat months of substantial gains. A return to expansion is likely in the data for June. The unemployment rate may remain at 5.5% seen beforehand. Wage growth has a growing impact and should be eyed as well.

*All times are GMT

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Further reading:

• EUR/USD forecast – for everything related to the euro.
• GBP/USD forecast – Pound/dollar analysis
• USD/JPY forecast – the outlook for dollar/yen
• AUD/USD forecast – projections for the Aussie dollar.
• USD/CAD forecast – Canadian dollar predictions

Safe trading!