Forex Weekly Outlook – February 9-13 2009
Weekly Forex Forecasts

Forex Weekly Outlook – February 9-13 2009

The second week of February begins in a slow pace, with more speeches than real economic data. It gradually gains pace, with Trade Balance in Canada and the US on Wednesday, Australian Employment Data on Thursday, and American Retail Sales on Thursday. On Friday 13th, European GDP will dominate the day, as well as UoM Consumer Sentiment and the G7 summit talks. Let’s dive in…

Monday, February 9th: Forex trading has a slow start, with Canadian  Housing Starts being the only important figure. This will be interesting after last week terrible employment data from Canada. Other than that, a speech by  Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner could be of interest.

Tuesday, February 10th: The British pound will get news at midnight, with the  RICS House Price Balance and  BRC Retail Sales Monitor. Later in Britain, the Trade Balance will be of interest to traders. In Europe, the Euro might move on  French Industrial Production. In Switzerland, CPI is expected to fall badly, by 1.9%.  

And Tuesday also features lots of speeches:  RBA Governor Glenn Stevens will have to say something about the AUD,  BOC Governor Mark Carney about the CAD and America’s top economic people will be speaking: Timothy Geithner (again) and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.

Wednesday, February 11th: The day begins early in Australia, where monthly  Home Loans and the  Westpac Consumer Sentiment will be of interest. In Britain, economic data as well as speeches will dominate the scene:  Claimant Count Change,  Average Earnings Index and  Unemployment Rate will be in numbers, while Mervyn King and the  BOE Inflation Report will impact by words.

The Trade Balance will be published in Canada and in the US, at the same time. The US will also see the  Federal Budget Balance and a few lectures:  Federal Reserve’s Elizabeth Duke and  Charles Evans will talk about the economy, as well as, you guessed it right: Timothy Geithner.

Thursday, February 12th: This day already probides more “meat”. It’s Australia’s turn to provide employment data. Both  Employment Change and  Unemployment Rate  will be published at 00:30 GMT. In the European scene,  ECB Monthly Bulletin and  Industrial Production will shake the Euro. Also Jean Claude Trichet’s speech will move the European common currency.

Apart from the weekly  Unemployment Claims, expected above 600K, the  Retail Sales and Core  Retail Sales are very important for the dollar.

Retail Sales and Core  Retail Sales will also dominate trading in New Zealand, towards the end of the day.

Friday, February 13th: Yes, it’s Friday 13th! This day has a few “dangerous” releases. At 7:00 GMT, the Germans will release the  Prelim GDP, which is expected to fall by 1.8% in the world’s 4th economy. A little bit later, the French will release the  Prelim Non-Farm Payrolls, and the Prelim GDP. Also the Italians will release their Prelim GDP. And the overall figure for Europe, the  Flash GDP will be published at 10:00 GMT. It’s expected to fall by 1.3%.

In the US, the  Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment always impacts the markets. The University of Michigan has a good reputation for predicting the direction of the economy.  

Note that the G7 meeting also begin on Friday, and statements (or leaks) from there could also be interesting for forex traders.

So, those are the main events for the week. I’ll update on a daily basis.

Have a great week!

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.