Forex Weekly Outlook – February 9-13 2009


The second week of February begins in a slow pace, with more speeches than real economic data. It gradually gains pace, with Trade Balance in Canada and the US on Wednesday, Australian Employment Data on Thursday, and American Retail Sales on Thursday. On Friday 13th, European GDP will dominate the day, as well as UoM Consumer Sentiment and the G7 summit talks. Let’s dive in…

Monday, February 9th: Forex trading has a slow start, with Canadian Housing Starts being the only important figure. This will be interesting after last week terrible employment data from Canada. Other than that, a speech by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner could be of interest.

Tuesday, February 10th: The British pound will get news at midnight, with the RICS House Price Balance and BRC Retail Sales Monitor. Later in Britain, the Trade Balance will be of interest to traders. In Europe, the Euro might move on French Industrial Production. In Switzerland, CPI is expected to fall badly, by 1.9%. 

And Tuesday also features lots of speeches: RBA Governor Glenn Stevens will have to say something about the AUD, BOC Governor Mark Carney about the CAD and America’s top economic people will be speaking: Timothy Geithner (again) and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.

Wednesday, February 11th: The day begins early in Australia, where monthly Home Loans and the Westpac Consumer Sentiment will be of interest. In Britain, economic data as well as speeches will dominate the scene: Claimant Count Change, Average Earnings Index and Unemployment Rate will be in numbers, while Mervyn King and the BOE Inflation Report will impact by words.

The Trade Balance will be published in Canada and in the US, at the same time. The US will also see the Federal Budget Balance and a few lectures: Federal Reserve’s Elizabeth Duke and Charles Evans will talk about the economy, as well as, you guessed it right: Timothy Geithner.

Thursday, February 12th: This day already probides more “meat”. It’s Australia’s turn to provide employment data. Both Employment Change and Unemployment Rate will be published at 00:30 GMT. In the European scene, ECB Monthly Bulletin and Industrial Production will shake the Euro. Also Jean Claude Trichet’s speech will move the European common currency.

Apart from the weekly Unemployment Claims, expected above 600K, the Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales are very important for the dollar.

Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales will also dominate trading in New Zealand, towards the end of the day.

Friday, February 13th: Yes, it’s Friday 13th! This day has a few “dangerous” releases. At 7:00 GMT, the Germans will release the Prelim GDP, which is expected to fall by 1.8% in the world’s 4th economy. A little bit later, the French will release the Prelim Non-Farm Payrolls, and the Prelim GDP. Also the Italians will release their Prelim GDP. And the overall figure for Europe, the Flash GDP will be published at 10:00 GMT. It’s expected to fall by 1.3%.

In the US, the Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment always impacts the markets. The University of Michigan has a good reputation for predicting the direction of the economy. 

Note that the G7 meeting also begin on Friday, and statements (or leaks) from there could also be interesting for forex traders.

So, those are the main events for the week. I’ll update on a daily basis.

Have a great week!

Get the 5 most predictable currency pairs

About Author

Yohay Elam – Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I’ve accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I’ve earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I’ve worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.


  1. i think this week does not encourage the heave trade ad traders should be careful.

  2. i think this week does not encourage the heave tr ade ad traders should be careful .if one is to ivest dat should be done with wisdom.

  3. Yup, apart from speeches, also Obama's stimulus package will be dealt with this week, so anything can happen.

  4. Forex Investing on

    It will be interesting to see what the pound does this week after such a solid run up. My guess is it doesn't break above 1.50 before heading back down.

  5. I also don't think it will break the 1.50 mark again. The British economy is in a sad situation, and the pound should head back down.