Forex Weekly Outlook – July 20-24 2009

The upcoming week in forex trading has many important figures: Canadian rate decision, American Existing Home Sales and British GDP are the highlights, together with Ben Bernanke’s testament. Will the currencies break out of the ranges they cling to? Let’s see what can move them this week:

Monday, July 20th: British  Rightmove HPI starts the week quite early. Later on, Australian quarterly PPI is predicted to continue falling, putting pressure on the RBA to lower rates.  Speaking of PPI, German PPI is expected to start rising.

Across the ocean, Canadian  Foreign Securities Purchases and  Wholesale Sales are both expected to drop. Just before the day ends, Japanese  Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes are released.

Tuesday, July 21st:  Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes are released also in Australia. Will there be a hint of any policy change?

Swiss Trade Balance is predicted to squeeze again. In Britain,  Public Sector Net Borrowing is expected to shrink.

In Canada, it’s time for a new  Overnight Rate – it isn’t expected to budge from 0.25%. The focus of loonie traders will be on the  BOC Rate Statement. Will the Canadian dollar continue to shine?

Ben Bernanke goes to Capitol Hill to testify once again, and might explain the Federal Reserve’s exit strategy from the crisis.

Wednesday, July 22nd: Contrary to the PPI, Australia’s CPI is expected to rise, this time by 0.5%.

In Britain,  MPC Meeting Minutes are released. British  CBI Industrial Order Expectations will also be of interest to cable traders.

In Canada, more important news is coming, with Retail Sales. Both Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales are expected to rise.  Ben Bernanke will continue testifying today as well.

Near the end of the day, Japan’s Trade Balance is predicted to show an improved surplus.

Thursday, July 23rd: British  Retail Sales will draw attention – they’re expected to turn positive. Also of interest: BBA Mortgage Approvals in Britain.

In the US, the weekly Unemployment Claims are expected to fall back to 560K, after improving steadily in the recent weeks.  Existing Home Sales are expected to be on the march, rising to 4.8 million.

Canadian data continues to flow, with the  BOC Monetary Policy Report and a speech by BOC Governor Mark Carney.

Friday, July 24th: Lots of European PMI figures flow in today – it starts with French  Flash Manufacturing PMI and  Flash Services PMI, and then continues with the same German figures and then the all-European figures. All the PMI figures are predicted to rise, but they aren’t expected to reach the magical 50 mark.

Another important figure in Europe is the  German Ifo Business Climate which will probably continue rising.

In Britain, Prelim GDP for the second quarter is expected to show a contraction of 0.3%, much better than the terrible first quarter. Britain was hit hard by the current crisis.

Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment will close the week in the US with an expected rise.

Now that I’m back, I’ll be getting back to daily outlooks, as well as special coverages for some currencies: the British Pound and the Canadian dollar look very interesting this week.