The upcoming week features PMIs in the US, UK and the eurozone. These indices are important gauges of the strength of the manufacturing and services sectors. As well, the central banks of Japan and Australia will release the minutes of their policy meetings.
The Bank of Japan maintained the policy balance rate unchanged at -0.10%. The bank’s economic forecasts were pessimistic, but USD/JPY didn’t show much reaction.
In the US, initial unemployment claims dipped slightly to 1.30 million, down from 1.31 million beforehand. The total number of claims is above 32 million, as the employment situation remains grim.
- Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Sunday, 23:50. The BoJ releases the minutes of its June policy meeting. The Bank has indicated that it has no plans to change its ultra-easy accommodative stance and this will likely be reiterated in the minutes.
- Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Tuesday, 1:30. The RBA will release the minutes of last week’s policy meeting. The tone of the minutes could affect the movement of AUD/USD.
- US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 8:30. Initial US employment claims continue to drop, albeit at a slow rate. Jobless claims ticked lower to 1.30 million, down from 1.31 in the previous release. Another small drop is expected in the upcoming release, with an estimate of 1.28 million.
- UK Manufacturing PMI: Friday, 8:30. Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.1 in June, just above the 50.0 mark, which separates contraction from expansion. The initial estimate for July stands at 52.0.
- Eurozone PMIs: Friday, 7:15 in France, 7:30 in Germany, and 8:00 for the whole eurozone. In Germany and the eurozone, manufacturing PMIs rose sharply in May, but remain in contraction territory. The German PMI rose from 36.6 to 45.2, while the eurozone indicator climbed from 39.4 to 47.4. French Manufacturing PMI improved to 52.3, which indicates expansion. In Germany and the eurozone, initial readings for July are projected to improve but remain in contraction territory, with estimates of 48.0 and 49.6, respectively. In the services sector, German PMI is expected to rise to 50.1 just above the 50.0 threshold, which separates contraction from expansion. The eurozone index is expected to improve to 51.0 and the French indicator to 52.3.
- UK Services PMI: Friday, 8:30. After showing deep contraction in April, with a read of just 12.3, the index has recovered. In June, the index improved to 47.0 and the initial estimate for July stands at 51.1, which indicates slight expansion.
- US Manufacturing PMI: Friday, 13:45. The PMI has not posted a reading showing expansion (above 50.0) since February. The index improved to 49.8 in June, up sharply from 39.8 beforehand. The upward trend is expected to continue, with an estimate of 52.0.
- US Services PMI: Friday, 13:45. In June, the PMI climbed from 36.9 to 47.9. The estimate for July stands at 51.0.
- All times are GMT
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