Forex Weekly Outlook – July 27-31 2009


The last week of July begins slowly but ends with a bang: American GDP for the first quarter. Also note Durable Goods Orders, a rate decision in New Zealand and GDP in Canada. Let’s see what’s up for the last week of July, and also the last week before the NFA ruling is here.

Monday, July 27th: European GfK German Consumer Climate is the first significant indicator this week. It’s expected to stay unchanged. Later in Europe, M3 Money Supply might be of interest.

In the US, New Home Sales are predicted to follow the trend and rise to 354K. This will be closely watched. Later in America, a televised  interview with Ben Bernanke will be aired on PBS. Note that the interview was recorded 24 hours earlier and might leak.

New Zealand’s Trade Balance closes the day. The surplus is predicted to squeeze.

Tuesday, July 28th: Australia starts the day with many events: CB Leading Index, NAB Quarterly Business Confidence and a speech by RBA Governor Glenn Stevens will all move the Aussie.

British CBI Realized Sales are expected to be somewhat better, but still negative. The road to British recovery is long.

In the US, CB Consumer Confidence is predicted to drop slightly after improving in recent months. Also note the S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI which gives a look at the housing sector from the price angle.

New Zealand’s Building Consents are expected to turn negative after rising last month. This is an important figure for the kiwi.

Japanese Retail Sales close the day with an expected fall of 2.5%.

Wednesday, July 29th: Australia starts the day again with HIA New Home Sales. New Zealand’s NBNZ Business Confidence will be of interest to kiwi traders.

German Prelim CPI will be published throughout the day and there’s no hope of Europe getting out of its deflation.

Durable Goods Orders and also the Core value are expected to fall after making surprising rises last month. This is a very important figure for the greenback. Later in the US, the Beige Book will give a broad look at the economy.

New Zealand’s Official Cash Rate isn’t expected to change, and stay high at 2.5%. Kiwi traders will closely watch the RBNZ Rate Statement.

Japan closes the day (again) with the important Prelim Industrial Production. It’s expected to rise by 2.5% after making a higher leap last time.

Thursday, July 30th: You guessed it right. An Australian figure starts the day: Building Approvals are expected to rise nicely.

British Nationwide HPI is predicted to rise modestly for a third month in a row.

German Unemployment Change is predicted to rise significantly. This isn’t good for Merkel’s election campaign.

Canadian RMPI and IPPI will move the loonie later on.

American Unemployment Claims are expected to worsen once again, rising to 578K. Obama “promised” that the unemployment rate will rise above 10%.

GfK Consumer Confidence will be published quite late in Britain. Japan’s Household Spending is predicted to rise while Tokyo Core CPI is expected to fall. Japan’s prices are low, and they’ll probably continue to fall.

Friday, July 31st: European CPI Flash Estimate is expected to fall. I already mentioned deflation…

In Switzerland, the highly regarded KOF Economic Barometer is predicted to improve but still remain negative. This is a major release for USD/CHF.

Canadian GDP is predicted to fall by 0.4% in the previous month, after dropping by 0.1% last month. It’ll be overshadowed by the American GDP.

Advance GDP in the US is predicted to show a contraction of 1.3% in the second quarter. This early indicator will be closely watched by forex traders as well as the Obama administration.

Also note the accompanying quarterly figures: Advance GDP Price Index and Employment Cost Index which are both expected to rise.

The last figure for the week  is Chicago PMI which is expected to rise.

That’s it. I’ll later post coverages for the Canadian dollar, British Pound and perhaps the Australian or New Zealand dollars.

Further reading:

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About Author

Yohay Elam – Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I’ve accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I’ve earned the significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I’ve worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.


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