Forex Weekly Outlook – June 1-5 2009

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Get ready for a wild week in forex trading. As always in the beginning of the month, the king of forex: Non-Farm Payrolls is dominant. We have rate decisions from Europe, Britain, Canada and Australia. Yup, everything happens this week. And there are loads of other major indicators. Hold tight!

Only a big surprise this week could turn the evident long term decline in the dollar. This week has many opportunities to surprise…

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Monday, June 1st: It’s “Whit Monday” in Europe, so banks will be closed there. This will make forex trading thinner, but major indicators pour in early in the week. Not so typical…

In Australia, there’s no holiday though – Retail Sales are expected to continue rising in the land down under.

In Britain, Halifax HPI is expected to show a decline, but might surprise after last week’s good Nationwide HPI. Also in Britain, Manufacturing PMI will shake the markets.

The British Pound is going north – the road is open towards 1.67. This trend should continue this week.

Canadian monthly GDP is expected to continue showing contraction.

In the US, ISM Manufacturing PMI is predicted to rise to 42.3, climbing steadily.

Tuesday, June 2nd: Australian Building Approvals are expected to continue rising. This is a warm up for a new rate in Australia – Cash Rate is expected to stay at 3%, highest in the west. So, the focus will be on the RBA Rate Statement.

In Switzerland, GDP is expected to squeeze once again, this time by 1.4%, in the first quarter of 2009. This might stop the fall of USD/CHF.

European Unemployment Rate is predicted to rise to 9.1%. This figure has a strong influence on the ECB.

American Pending Home Sales will draw attention. Expectations are for a modest rise of 0.4%.

Wednesday, June 3rd: Australian GDP is expected to squeeze by 0.2%. If this will happen, Australia will be officially in a recession. Currently Australia has avoided an official recession.

British Services PMI is expected to rise to 49.4 points, on the brink of expansion. It’s an important figure for the Pound.

American ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, which surprise last time, is predicted to fall to -525K. This is a preliminary figure before the NFP. Though not the best indicator, it moves the markets.

Factory Orders are expected to turn positive. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, the complementary figure for Monday, is expected to rise to 45.1.

While these  are  important figures, it’ll be overshadowed by a testament by Ben Bernanke. He will give a fresh forecast. Will he point towards recovery or stagnation?

Thursday, June 4th: Australian Trade Balance surplus is predicted to squeeze significantly. Will this stop the rally in AUD/USD?

Mervyn King’s MPC is expected to leave the Official Bank Rate unchanged in Britain, at 0.5%. So, the focus will move to MPC Rate Statement that might shed more light on the expanded Quantitative Easing program, that currently stands at 125 billion Pounds.

European Minimum Bid Rate is also predicted to stay unchanged, at 1%. So, does this mean that unconventional measures will also be taken by the ECB? Will Europe join the forex war? Answers at the ECB Press Conference.

Canadian Building Permits are predicted to fall sharply. This might hurt be a bump to the loonie’s road to parity. Also note the Ivey PMI which is predicted to rise to 54.7.

Canadian Overnight Rate is predicted to remain at the historic low of 0.25%. What’s more interesting in Canada is the BOC Rate Statement. Currently, the BOC isn’t taking extreme measures like its neighbor from the south.

American Unemployment Claims aren’t expected to bring big news, remaining at around 620K.

Friday, June 5th: ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet speaks again. He might clarify the ECB’s policy after the rate statement. In Switzerland, CPI is expected to be very stable, at 0.2%.

British Input PPI is predicted to turn positive and relief the fears of deflation.

Canadian Employment Change is predicted to be negative, at -47.5K. Also the Unemployment Rate isn’t expected to bring hope, rising to 8.3%.

The king of forex trading – Non-Farm Payrolls is expected to show a loss of 525,000 jobs. Last month, NFP made a positive surprise, as I had expected 🙂 This time, it’s expected to be rather stable.

But the Unemployment Rate is expected to be painful, rising to 9.2%. Getting close to an unemployment rate of 10% is quite scary for Americans.

Happy forex trading on this wild week. In this outlook, I focused on the very big events. Otherwise it would be overloaded. Follow my daily outlooks for deeper dive into every day’s events.

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About Author

Yohay Elam – Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I’ve accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I’ve earned the significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I’ve worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.