Forex Weekly Outlook – June 8-12 2009
Weekly Forex Forecasts

Forex Weekly Outlook – June 8-12 2009

After a wild week that exceeded expectations, this week is relatively quiet. Trade Balance will be published almost everywhere. American Retail Sales will also stand out, as well as an interest rate from New Zealand. Here are the major events for this week:

Non-Farm Payrolls closed the week with a big surprise. The dollar won the wild forex trading week. Will the dollar continue its comeback this week? OR will the general long term dollar decline continue?

Monday, June 8th: Swiss Unemployment Rate is the first significant indicator for the week. It’s expected to rise from 3.4% to 3.6%.

German Factory Orders are predicted to remain unchanged, after rising last time. The biggest European economy seems stuck…

In Canada, Housing Starts are an important figure. They’re expected to rise from 118K to 127K. Will the loonie move?

Near the end of the day, British RICS House Price Balance is predicted to fall by 52%.

Tuesday, June 9th: Australian  ANZ Job Advertisements is a good indicator for the local job market. After falling by 7.5% last time, it should rise this time.

Trade Balance will be published in Germany and France. No big news are expected. German Industrial Production is expected to fall by 0.2%. Another bad figure for the EUR/USD.

Just before midnight GMT, Japanese  Core Machinery Orders are predicted to stabilize after diving last time.

Wednesday, June 10th: Australian Home Loans have a big impact on AUD/USD. They’re expected to continue rising, but at a slower pace of 1.6%.

Also in France, Industrial Production is also expected to fall. Also note the German Final CPI, which is predicted to be negative.

In Britain,  Manufacturing Production is expected to fall by 0.1%, afor a second month in a row. Trade Balance is predicted to stay stable and Industrial Production is expected to drop by 0.1%. All the British figures are published at the same time, 8:30 GMT. Watch GBP/USD move at this time.

Trade Balance is also published in North America. Canada is expected to show a surplus of 0.8 billion, while American deficit is expected to expand to 28.8 billion. Note that the figure is publsihed at the same time.

In the evening, the Federal Reserve will publish the  Beige Book, a good overview of the American economy. Also the  Federal Budget Balance will move the greenback.

Later on, a new interest rate will be published in New Zealand. It’s predicted to remain unchanged, at 2.5%. The RBNZ might surprise. Anyway, we’ll get answers at the RBNZ Press Conference.

Just before midnight, the Final GDP will be published in Japan, one of the countries that suffered badly from the current crisis. It’s expected to stay inline with the early release, showing a contraction of 4%.

Thursday, June 11th: Australian employment figures make a strong start for this day.  Employment Change is predicted to show a loss of 30K jobs, erasing last month’s gains. Also the  Unemployment Rate isn’t predicted to bring good news: a rise from 5.4% to 5.7% is expected.

In Europe, the  ECB Monthly Bulletin will supply an overview of the economy. British  Consumer Inflation Expectations will indicate how close Britain is to deflation.

US Retail Sales fell last month. Now they are expected to turn positive and rise. Also the Core Retail Sales are predicted to rise.

After the good Non-Farm Payrolls, weekly  Unemployment Claims are expected to show another improvement, squeezing from 621K to 614K. Hopefully, the American job market is off the bottom.

For those of you trading on USD/CAD, note a speech by BOC Governor Mark Carney.

Near the end of the day,  Retail Sales in New Zealand are expected to turn positive. Core Retail Sales aren’t expected to change.

Friday, June 12th: G8 meetings begin today, and continue on Saturday. Finance ministers will gather in Italy and will be speaking their mind from time to time. Optimism or pessimism might shake the greenback.

European  Industrial Production is expected to remain in negative territory, falling by 0.5%. A speech by Jean-Claude Trichet might also impact the EUR/USD.

In the US,  Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment is the main indicator. It’s expected to continue marching forward, rising to 69 points.

Those are the major indicators. I’ll publish daily outlooks as usual, and also special coverages of some currencies that will stand out this week.

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Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.