In the US, second-estimate GDP for the first quarter came in unchanged at 6.4%, confirming the initial reading.   Unemployment claims fell to a new post-Covid low of 406 thousand, down from 444 thousand.   The PCE index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, jumped to 3.6% in April, up from 2.2%. This could lift the US dollar if investors believe that the Fed will re-evaluate whether to taper QE sooner rather than later.
  1. German CPI: Monday, All Day. German inflation rose to 0.7% in April, above the forecast of 0.5%. CPI is expected to slow to 0.3% in May.
  2. Eurozone Inflation Report:  Tuesday, 9:00. Eurozone inflation has been accelerating in recent months. Headline CPI is projected to rise to 1.9% for May and Core CPI is expected to tick higher to 0.9%.
  3. Canada GDP: Tuesday, 12:30. Canada releases GDP on a monthly basis.   After a weak gain of 0.4% in March, the economy is projected to show a gain of 1.0% in April.
  4. US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Tuesday, 14:00. Manufacturing continues to show strong growth. The PMI is expected to remain unchanged at 61.5. The neutral 50-level separates contraction from expansion.
  5. US ISM Services PMI: Thursday, 14:00. The PMI is forecast to climb to 62.9 in May, up marginally from 62.7.
  6. US Employment Report: Friday, 12:30. The market is projecting a strong NFP report for May, with an estimate of 621 thousand, compared to 266 thousand previously.   The unemployment rate is expected to nudge lower to 5.9%, down from 6.1%. However, wage growth is forecast to come in at -0.4%, after a reading of +0.3%.
  7. Canada Employment Report: Friday, 12:30. The economy shed 207.1 thousand jobs in April and we will now receive the May data. The unemployment rate is expected to tick upwards to 8.2% in May, up from 8.1%.