Forex Weekly Outlook Nov. 2-6 – Central banks and US election in focus

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The US election will be the highlight of the week, with US voters going to the polls on Tuesday. The Federak Reserve, BoE and RBA will announce their rate decisions, and we’ll get a look at Manufacturing PMIs in the eurozone and the UK.

In Germany, Preliminary CPI managed a weak gain of 0.1%, which ended a streak of three straight declines. Germany’s GDP for Q3 jumped 8.2%, after a decline of 10.1% in Q2. The ECB maintained monetary policy at its policy meeting, but hinted strongly that it would implement further easing at the December meeting. Eurozone headline inflation declined by 0.3%, while Core CPI posted a gain of 0.2%.

The Bank of Japan maintained monetary policy but lowered its economic and price forecasts for the current fiscal year.

The Bank of Canada maintained interest rates at 0.25% and signaled that it would not hike rates before 2023. The central bank also tweaked QE, lowering assets from “at least” C$5 billion/week to “at least” C$4 billion/week. Canada’s GDP showed a gain of 1.2% in August, down from 3.0%. Still, this beat the estimate of 0.9%.

In the US, durable goods orders were up sharply in September. The headline reading soared to 1.9%, up from 0.4%. This crushed the estimate of 0.5%. The core reading improved to 0.8%, up from 0.4%. Advance GDP jumped 33.1% in Q3 its strongest quarter on record. However, it barely recouped the Q2 loss of 31.4%. There was more good news on the employment front, as jobless claims fell to 751 thousand, down from 787 thousand beforehand. Core PCE Price Index, the preferred inflation gauge of the Federal Reserve, edged down to 0.2%, down from 0.3%.

  1. Eurozone Manufacturing PMIs: Monday, 8:15 in Spain, 8:45 in Italy, 8:50 in final figure in France, 8:55, final in Germany and final eurozone number at 9:00. German and eurozone PMIs are expected to be well into expansionary territory in October, with estimates of 58.0 and 54.4, respectively. The Spanish release is projected to edge up to 51.0, up from 50.8 points. This is just above the neutral 50-level, which separates expansion from contraction. The French PMI is expected at 51.0 and Italy at 53.9 points.
  2. UK Manufacturing PMI: Monday, 9:30. The manufacturing sector continues to show expansion, with readings above the 50-level, which separates expansion from contraction. The index dipped from 55.2 to 54.1 in September, and the estimate for October is 53.3.
  3. US Presidential Election: Tuesday, All Day. The markets will be keeping a close eye on the US election, as voters choose between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. The US Senate race is very tight, and we can expect volatility in the markets around the time of the election. If the results are contested, the uncertainty could lead to even more market fluctuation.
  4. Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision: Tuesday, 3:30. The RBA has pegged the Cash Rate at 0.25% since March, but has sent broad hints to the markets that it plans to trim rates. Analysts expect the central bank to pull the trigger this week and cut rates to 0.10%. Investors will also be interested in the rate statement, which will provide details on the central bank’s view of the economy.
  5. Bank of England Rate Decision: Thursday, 12:00.  Analysts are expecting more of the same at the BoE policy meeting. Members are expected to hold the Official Bank Rate at 0.10% and maintain QE at GBP 745 billion pounds.   
  6. US FOMC Rate Decision: Thursday, 19:00. The Federal Reserve holds its monthly meeting in the shadow of the tight election race. The Fed is expected to hold rates at a range between 0-0.25%. The tone of the rate statement could affect the movement of the US dollar.
  7. Canada Employment Report: Friday, 13:30. Job creation remains strong. In September, the economy created 378.2 thousand jobs, up from 245.8 thousand and well above the estimate of 150.0 thousand. The unemployment rate dropped to 9.0% in September, down from 10.2%. We now await the November data, which could affect the movement of USD/CAD.
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About Author

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.

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