Forex Weekly Outlook Nov. 9-13 – US election triggers volatility

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It was a week marked by exceptional volatility, with the US dollar showing broad losses against the G-10 currencies, courtesy of the US election. Expectations of a Democrat “blue wave” fueled sharp a buying frenzy away from the greenback, and although this scenario failed to materialize, the US dollar selloff continued throughout the week. Central banks remain committed to an accommodative policy, with the BoE and the RBA easing monetary policy last week.

Eurozone Manufacturing PMIs were within expectations, showing expansion across the board. Germany’s PMI was particularly strong, at 58.2 points.

The Bank of England held rates at 0.10%, but raised QE by GBP 150 billion to 895 billion, which was higher than the forecast of 845 billion.

The Reserve Bank of Australia trimmed rates from 0.25% to 0.10% and bank members also implemented QE for the first time ever, announcing plans to buy A$5 billion/ week in government bonds.

Canada’s economy created just 83.6 thousand jobs, down from 378.2 thousand beforehand.

  1. UK Employment Report: Tuesday, 7:00. The UK added 28.1 thousand unemployed persons in October, well below the estimate of 78.8 thousand. Wage growth is projected to rise to 1.0%, up from 0.0% in August. The unemployment rate climbed to 4.5% in August and is expected to rise to 4.7% in September.
  2. UK GDP: Thursday, 7:00. In the second quarter, GDP plunged by 19.8%, reflective of the economic downturn due to Covid-19. Analysts expect a strong rebound in Q3, with an estimate of 15.6%. The monthly GDP is forecast to post a 1.1% gain in September.
  3. German Final CPI: Thursday, 7:00. German CPI has posted three straight declines, pointing to weak economic activity in Germany. A weak gain of 0.1% is expected in October.
  4. US CPI: Thursday, 13:30. US consumer inflation is expected to remain low. The estimates for the headline and core releases stand at 0.2%.
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Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.