Forex Weekly Outlook November 25-29 – US hard data and trade talks dominate

The US Dollar had its share of mountains and valleys amid the Fed’s meeting minutes and trade news. Data returns to the limelight with an update on US GDP, durable goods orders, and more. Here the highlights for the upcoming week.

 

1. German IFO Business Climate: Monday, 9:00. IFO is the leading Think-Tank in the continent’s largest economy, and its 7,000-strong survey carries substantial weight. Back in October, the poll showed stability in business confidence, at 94.6 points. A minor improvement may be seen in the report for November.
2. CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 15:00. The Conference Board’s gauge of consumer sentiment has been dropping from the record highs but remains robust. Confidence is correlated with retail sales. The CB’s figure hit 125.9 points in October and may tick higher now, ahead of Black Friday.
3. US GDP: Wednesday, 13:30. According to the first release of third-quarter Gross Domestic Product, the economy grew by 1.9% annualized. That expansion rate is unimpressive in absolute terms but above the levels seen in the euro-zone and in other developed economies. An upgrade to levels above 2% would push the dollar higher, while a downgrade toward 1.5% may weigh on it.
4. US Durable Goods Orders: Wednesday, 13:30. While the GDP report refers to the three months that ended in September, the orders statistics are for October – thus more recent. Investment has been on the back foot and weighed on the US economy. Back in September, headline durable goods orders fell by 1.2% and core orders slipped by 0.4%. A bounce is on the cards for this publication.
5. Euro-zone inflation: Friday, 10:00. While headline euro-zone inflation has decelerated to 0.7% – a multi-year low – the Core Consumer Price Index accelerated to 1.1%, a level that provides some encouragement for the European Central Bank. Similar levels are likely now.
6. Canadian GDP: Friday, 13:30. Canada publishes its GDP reports on a monthly basis – providing up to date data. In the past two months, Canadian growth has disappointed, with an increase of only 0.1% in August and stagnation in July. The figure for September concludes the third quarter and thus provides a broader picture of the economy. A quicker pace of expansion is on the cards now.

*All times are GMT

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Further reading:

• EUR/USD forecast – for everything related to the euro.
• GBP/USD forecast – Pound/dollar analysis
• USD/JPY forecast – the outlook for dollar/yen
• AUD/USD forecast – projections for the Aussie dollar.
• USD/CAD forecast – Canadian dollar predictions

Safe trading!