Forex Weekly Outlook Oct. 19-23 – Covid-19 weighs on inflation, job numbers


Low inflation was reported in the eurozone and Japan, as economic activity remains subdued due to the Covid-19 pandemic. The UK, Australia and Canada all released weak employment data, and unemployment claims shot up in the United States.

The eurozone continues to struggle with low inflation levels. In September, eurozone inflation came in -0.3%, marking a second straight decline. The core reading slowed to 0.2%, down from 0.4% beforehand. In Germany, CPI came in at -0.2%, which was a third consecutive decline. In France, inflation declined by 0.5%.

Japan also continues to deal with low inflation. The Producer Price Index fell by 0.8% in September, marking an eighth straight decline.

In the UK, employment numbers were a mix. Jobless claims fell to 28.1 thousand, in September which was much better than the estimate of 78.8 thousand. The unemployment rate in August climbed to 4.5%, up from 4.1%. Wage growth improved to 0.0%, after three successive declines.

The Aussie lost ground after investors were treated to weak job numbers in Australia. The economy lost 29.5 thousand jobs in September, after three successive gains. As well, the unemployment rate edged up to 6.9%, up from 6.8%.

Canada also provided a soft employment report, as ADP nonfarm payrolls came in at -240.8 thousand.

US consumer inflation slowed in September, as inflation levels remain at low levels. Both the headline and core readings dropped to 0.2%, down from 0.4% beforehand. Unemployment claims climbed to 898 thousand, the highest level in seven weeks.

  1. Chinese GDP: Monday, 2:00. China is projected to be the only major economy that will record growth this year. In the second quarter, GDP grew by 3.2% and the forecast for Q3 stands at 5.5%.
  2. RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Tuesday, 00:30. The Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting earlier this month, but dropped a broad hint that it could trim rates before the end of the year. The meeting minutes will shed some light on the deliberations at the meeting.
  3. German PPI: Tuesday, 6:00. The Producer Price Index slowed to 0.0% in August, as German inflation levels remain low.  A small increase of 0.1% is forecast for September.
  4. UK Inflation Report: Wednesday, 6:00. Consumer inflation slowed to 0.2% in August, but is expected to improve to 0.4% in the September release. Core CPI is projected to rise to 1.3%, up from 0.9% in August.
  5. Canada Inflation Report: Wednesday, 12:30. Consumer inflation remains at low levels as the economy continues to struggle with the Covid-19 pandemic. CPI declined by 0.1% in August, after a reading of zero beforehand. Will inflation rebound in the September release?
  • All times are GMT
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About Author

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.