After another week of general dollar weakness, this week’s highlights are housing data from the US, meeting minutes from all over the world, a rate decision in Canada and British GDP. There are many more important releases. Let’s see what’s expecting us this week:
The past week showed us that also in the Asian sessions, dramatical moves can happen. One Asian session in the upcoming week contains major Chinese data, which will also move the markets.
Monday, October 19th: British Rightmove HPI starts the week, and may help the Pound continue rising.
In Japan, Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes are released amidst mixed statements regarding currency policy. Also in Japan, Tertiary Industry Activity is expected to continue rising.
In the US, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will be speaking in two sessions. He usually moves both stock markets and forex markets.
Tuesday, October 20th: Australia’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes will be released and are expected to give more hints regarding future rate hikes, after the recent raise.
German PPI will start the European figures this week. After passing the resistance line of 1.4908, will EUR/USD move up to 1.50?
In Britain, Public Sector Net Borrowing will affect the Pound, and later, a speech by Mervyn King is due.
In Canada, the interest rate is expected to remain unchanged at 0.25%. Apart from the Overnight Rate, the BOC Rate Statement is expected to hint about future moves. Will the loonie reach parity?
In the US, Building Permits are predicted to step up to 0.59 million. Housing Starts, also in the housing sector, are predicted to rise to 0.62 million.
American PPI is expected to follow the CPI and show that inflation isn’t a danger. It’s expected to rise by 0.1%. Core PPI is also expected to rise by 0.1%.
Wednesday, October 21st: Australia’s MI Leading Index starts the day, and is expected to be positive.
In Britain, the MPC Meeting Minutes are expected to expose a dispute inside the central bank regarding the Quantitative Easing Program. Does Mervyn King want to expand the Asset Purchasing facility, or is it over? This is a very important event for the Pound, that recently moved by the BoE’s bearish statements, and then by positive ones.
Later in Britain, CBI Industrial Order Expectations are expected to improve but remain negative.
In the evening, the American Beige Book is due to help clear the debate on whether the American economy is recovering or not.
Just before midnight, Japan’s Trade Balance is predicted to show a rising surplus.
Thursday, October 22nd: Events in China will also impact forex trading today. Chinese GDP for the third quarter is expected to grow in an annual rate of 9%, following a 7.9% in the previous quarter. Chinese Industrial Production is predicted to rise by 1.3%. Strong figures will mostly impact the Aussie, but will affect the whole world.
In Switzerland, Trade Balance is expected to fall to a surplus of 1.59 billion. European Current Account is predicted to squeeze to 4.3 billion.
In Britain, Retail Sales are expected to rise by 0.6% after being unchanged last time. Also Canada publishes Retail Sales, and they’re expected to rise by 0.2%.
Following the rate decision, the Bank of Canada will release the BOC Monetary Policy Report and will later hold a press conference. These events will move USD/CAD. Which country will be the next to raise the rates?
American Unemployment Claims are expected to remain stable at the better levels of 516K.
Friday, October 23rd: It’s time for Purchasing mangers’ data in Europe. France starts with Flash Manufacturing PMI and Flash Services PMI. The French figures are followed by the same figures from Germany and finally flow all of Europe.
In Germany, the Ifo Business Climate is predicted to step up to 92.1 points, showing a better sentiment. Industrial New Orders in Europe are predicted to rise by 1.2%, about half of last month’s rise.
In Britain, Prelim GDP for the third quarter is expected to rise by 0.1%. Growth in Britain will cheer the Pound. The NIESR GDP estimate showed that Britain didn’t enjoy growth in the third quarter.In the US, another public appearance by Ben Bernanke is expected to move the markets. Near the end of the day, Existing Home Sales will complete the housing data, and are expected to jump up to 5.39 billion.
That’s it for the important events of this week. I’ll post in-depth coverages of specific currencies later on.
Update: Two ready, more to come.
- For the Euro, read the EUR/USD Outlook.
- For the British Pound, check out the GBP/USD Outlook.
- For the Australian dollar, read the AUD/USD Outlook.
- For the Canadian dollar, check out the USD/CAD Outlook
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