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France: Mainstream Macron seen as debate winner – EUR/USD

A three-hour+ long televised debate (#LeGranDebat) encompassed a wide variety of topics concerning French voters. Emmanuel Macron, the young, former socialist that is running independently on a centrist platform, seems to have come on top.

Opinion polls held immediately after  the event ended showed  he edged out his rivals. This is crucial for him. He is not as known as his other rivals and his lead position also stemmed from disgust about their views (extreme-right Marine Le Pen) or from their scandals (Françios Fillon).

Here are the snap-survey results. They show  Macron well ahead of far-left Melenchon, with Fillon and Le Pen sharing the second place.

Source: Elabe and Bloomberg TV

The  televised event finished well into the Asian session but these surveys had their impact on the single currency. EUR/USD is trading back in the higher end of the range, around 1.0760 against 1.0720.

Resistance awaits at 1.0775, followed by 1.0830. Support is at 1.0720 and 1.0660. The pair has been confined to a relatively narrow range in recent days.

These are not dramatic moves, but more could come. The best indicators would  not be debate performance polls but voting intentions ones. A fresh “Presicast” from OpinionWay is due at 11:00, like every day.

The first round of the presidential elections is held on April 23rd. Macron and Le Pen are expected to continue to the second round which is due on May 7th. There, Macron is set to easily defeat Le Pen by a wide margin of around 60% against 40%.  However, things could turn out differently if Fillon still sneaks into the second round vs. Le Pen.

More:  How Le Pen could enter the Élysée Palace – a two-step scenario for EUR/USD parity

Here is how the recent move looks on the euro/dollar hourly chart:

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.