After a debate dubbed as “nasty”, it seems that Marine Le Pen’s nasty party and nasty approach did not win the day. Centrist Emmanuel Macron now leads by a margin of 61% against 39% for Le Pen. This is according to a fresh daily Opinionway poll which showed 60/40 yesterday.
The IFOP poll published yesterday also showed 60/40. Will it follow Opinionway? In any case, we will have the last day of polling tomorrow. Campaigning and polling are forbidden on Saturday, the day before the crucial vote on Sunday.
A victory for Macron is baked into the price of the euro. EUR/USD jumped on the results of the first round and never closed that Sunday gap. His expected victory on May 7th is unlikely to set off another jump in the common currency. On the other hand, a shock victory for Le Pen would be a total disaster for the euro. A collapse below parity cannot be ruled out.
Euro/dollar is currently trading at 1.0933, rising within the range. The dollar strengthened on the Fed decision yesterday. Yellen and her colleagues did not seem worried about the slowdown. However, the gains were not sustained against the euro nor the pound.
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Resistance awaits the pair at 1.0950, the high level for 2017 so far. Support is at 1.0820, the post-French election’s low.
All in all, the pair is trading in an upwards channel, as the chart below demonstrates. A break above 1.0950 is consistent with a move within the upwards range.
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