Yesterday’s Opinionway PresiTrack showed Macron at 23%, Le Pen at 22%, Fillon at 20% and Melenchon at 19%. The April 19th poll is 100% identical.
For the euro, the tension remains high, but at least Macron remains the leader and Melenchon is on the bottom. The nightmare scenario for markets is a Le Pen – Melenchon run off.
Things get better in the second round: Macron extends his lead to no less than 30 points against Le Pen: 65% to 35%. This is also a favorable outcome. An initial sigh of relief will be heard if Macron faces Le Pen. Most French are like to coalesce around Macron the centrist. Le Pen has a limited base.
If Le Pen were to face Fillon in the second round, he would beat her 58% to 42%, unchanged from yesterday’s edition.
Election junkies can expect another daily poll by Paris Match and IFOP at 16:00 GMT. The elections are only four days away.
EUR/USD was trading around 1.0720, quite steadily. Euro-zone inflation figures came as expected, confirming previous data.
More: French elections – all the updates in one place
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