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According to Danske Bank analysts, an eventful G7 meeting concluded yesterday as on Iran, French President Emmanuel Macron said that an US-Iran deal could be reached if Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and Trump meet.  

Key Quotes

“Trump agreed ‘if the circumstances were correct’. An agreement still seems far away, though.”

On global trade, the G7 leaders agreed that there is a need for modernising and reforming the WTO system  to make it more efficient, reflecting the changing economic structures. While it seems doubtful the US and China are anywhere close to a trade deal despite Trump’s comments yesterday,  it was positive that Trump said that the US and the EU are ‘very close to doing a deal’.  We have to be careful about Trump’s comments but this topic will be increasingly on our radar ahead of Trump’s decision in November whether to impose tariffs on auto imports from Europe or not.”

On Brexit, the EU and UK talks are now intensifying on the back of positive meetings ahead of and at the G7 meeting.  In our view, the EU seems more willing to compromise, well knowing that the backstop is a major hurdle for avoiding a no deal. Also, PM Boris Johnson seems more pragmatic (probably well knowing that a no-deal Brexit may backsplash economically and hence politically eventually). Still, the EU has said it is up to the UK to find ways to avoid the backstop.”