Libyan ruler Muammar al-Gaddafi might soon flee from his country. Events are moving fast in Libya – the opposition rebels are taking over more and more cities close to Tripoli, a new government has been formed and recognized, and Gaddafi’s family might be left with only one friend: Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe, that allegedly sent mercenaries to aid the Libyan ruler. Will this crisis end?
A new government has been formed in Benghazi – a former justice minister has declared himself prime minister. While there isn’t certainty that this is indeed an interim government of just the “face of the revolution” – US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was quick to recognize this new government and to offer any assistance needed. More an more defections have been reported from Gaddafi’s former supporters.
Zawiyah, close to Tripoli, has been taken over by the rebels. This was a scene of bloody battles in recent days, but now it’s under control of the opposition. After the eastern province has been secured by the opposition, they are also closing in on the Western province and closing in on the capital Tripoli – Gaddafi’s last stronghold. The end is near.
There are reports that the Zimbabwean army is helping Gaddafi in Libya. Officials in Zimbabwe have refused to comment on the situation and it seems that Gaddafi is on his way to Harare:
“Gaddafi’s own private plane is loaded with gold bullion and lots of hard currency, mainly dollars, and is preparing to flee to Zimbabwe to stay there with his friend Robert Mugabe. We think this could happen very shortly because the (UN) Security Council is threatening to impose a no-fly zone and we think that Gaddafi will try to escape before this no-fly zone is imposed,” Guma el-Gamaty said.
Gaddafi’s hours are short, and also NATO might fight him in Libya. If so, he’ll have to meet Mugabe earlier than expected.
If the Libyan civil war is decisively won by the opposition and Gaddafi indeed flees to Zimbabwe, this will lower the fear about the supply of oil from Libya and will contribute to pushing oil prices lower and sending the US dollar back up. Also the Swiss franc and Japanese yen, that have gained from the turmoil in Libya will lose their hot air.
But it’s important to remember that the Mideast troubles are far from over – Saudi Arabian protests have begun.
If the uprising reached Saudi Arabia, oil will skyrocket. Saudi Arabia is a huge producer of oil. Global growth will be seriously endangered.
For updates and analysis on oil prices, see Trading Energy.
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