GBP: Budget, Bank of England and Brexit… it could be messy – ING

“It’s a big week of event risks for GBP – with the Nov Bank of England meeting (Thu) and Chancellor’s Autumn budget (Mon) on the agenda,” note ING analysts.

Key quotes

“But make no mistake, they’ll be no hiding from Brexit – and we suspect the UK’s future relationship with the EU will be firmly in the spotlight at both events. Our economists note that given all the near-term unknowns of Brexit, UK Chancellor Philip Hammond appears keen to avoid making any dramatic changes as part of next week’s Autumn Budget. But that could prove tricky, following the government’s recent commitments to boost spending on health, as well as to bring the long-running austerity programme to an end from 2019.”

“If Hammond wants to stick to his fiscal goals, which include bringing debt down as a percentage of GDP by the end of the current Parliament, he knows he will need to find extra sources of funding to help square the circle.”

“In terms of the Bank of England meeting, we’re likely to see a unanimous vote to keep policy unchanged next week, and we don’t expect a rate hike before May 2019 at the earliest. But having stayed relatively quiet on Brexit risks at recent meetings, probably the most interesting question for markets next week will be whether Governor Carney voices greater concern about the short-term outlook.”

“In the absence of Brexit, we think the Bank would be eyeing up another rate hike in the next 3-6 months. GBP/USD trading 2 big figures below the ‘neutral’ sentiment level of 1.30 presents a good opportunity to buy GBP again – if one believes that Brexit will, in fact, be alright on the night. “