GBP: Negative Brexit Sentiment Weights But Not Much Further


Brexit talks are into their third round. While the UK offered some concessions, the EU does not see enough progress. What does this mean for the pound? The team at BTMU analyzes:

Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:

BTMU FX Strategy Research argues that while the negative Brexit sentiment could put a downside pressure on GBP over the coming weeks, strong UK economic data could mitigate that and provide some support. 

it is worth remembering that at some point lower BoE MPC officials would likely start to hint at potential inflation implications given the MPC tolerance for an inflation overshoot is not infinite.

“The latest QIR shows a pound NEER value assumption of 77.000 this year – we are currently averaging 76.650 on a year-to-date basis. A continued slide would start to add to the inflation overshoot which is currently estimated to peak at 2.75% in Q4 2017.

If the economic data was to show some improvement that combination would help provide support for the pound.

So we remain sceptical of how much further scope there is for pound selling,” BTMU argues.

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About Author

Yohay Elam – Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I’ve accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I’ve earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I’ve worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.

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