GBP/USD Forecast Jan. 25-29 2021 – UK inflation boosts pound

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GBP/USD posted considerable gains last week. The upcoming week has three releases, highlighted by key employment reports. Here is an outlook for the highlights and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

In the UK, inflation improved to 0.6% in December, up from 0.3%. CBI Industrial Order Expectations and GfK Consumer Confidence remained deep in negative territory, with readings of -38 and -28, respectively. Retail Sales rebounded from a previous decline but just barely, with a reading of 0.3%. This was well shy of the estimate of 1.4%. The December PMIs highlighted a tale of two sectors, as manufacturing came in at 52.9, indicating expansion. Services, however, continues to contract, and slowed to 38.8 points.

In the US, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index climbed to 26.5 in January, up strongly from the previous reading of 11.1 and well above expectations. Unemployment claims dropped to 900 thousand down from 965 thousand and below the forecast of 930 thousand. The week wrapped up with the Manufacturing PMI, which rose to 59.1, up from 56.5. This was its highest level since May 2007 and points to strong expansion.

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GBP/USD daily graph with resistance and support lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  1. Employment Report: Tuesday, 7:00. Wages have accelerated for four straight months, coming in at 2.7% in November. The upswing is expected to continue, with a forecast of 3.0%. Claimant Change Count jumped to 64.3 thousand in October, and the markets will be hoping for a lower reading. The unemployment rate has been creeping higher and is expected to climb to 5.1%.
  2. CBI Realized Sales: Tuesday, 11:00. Sales volume improved to -3 in December, its best reading since July. Will we see the uptrend continue?
  3. BRC Shop Price Index: Wednesday, 00:01. This inflation gauge of price movement in BRC shops continues to show negative readings, coming in at -1.8% in the past two readings.

Top to bottom:

We start with resistance at 1.3837.

1.3770 has held in resistance since May 2018.

1.3666 is an immediate support line.

1.3502 (mentioned last week) is protecting the symbolic 1.35 line.

1.3428 has held in support since late December.

1.3324 is the final support level for now.

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I am bullish GBP/USD

After a splash in early January, the US dollar has slowed down against the major currencies, including the pound. With the Biden administration pushing massive stimulus, the dollar could face a bumpy road.

Further reading:

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About Author

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.

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