GBP/USD Forecast July 29-Aug. 2 – Pound touches 3-month low, more to come?

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GBP/USD had a rough week, dropping close to 1.0%. This week’s key events are PMI reports and the BoE rate decision. Here is an outlook for the highlights of the upcoming week and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

The political saga continues in the U.K., as Boris Johnson took over as the country’s prime minister. Predictably, Johnson took a hard line on Brexit, declaring the U.K. would leave on October 31, with or without an agreement with the E.U. There was dismal news on the manufacturing front, as CBI Industrial Order Expectations dropped to -34, its lowest level since 2010.

In the U.S., durable goods orders rebounded nicely in June. The headline reading gained 2.0%, crushing the estimate of 0.8%. Core durable goods orders jumped 1.2%, easily beating the estimate of 0.2%. The week wrapped up with Advance GDP for Q2, which dropped to 2.1%. Still, this beat the estimate of 1.8%. The markets are eyeing the Federal Reserve, with the CME Group pricing a rate cut at 78%. This would mark the first rate cut since 2008.

GBP/USD daily graph with resistance and support lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  1. Mortgage Approvals: Monday, 8:30. The indicator edged lower to 65 thousand in June, down from 66 thousand a month earlier. The estimate for July is 66 thousand.
  2. BRC Shop Price Index: Tuesday, 23:01. This inflation indicator declined in June by 0.1%, its first decline in eight months. Will we see a rebound in the July release?
  3. Manufacturing PMI: Thursday, 8:30. The PMI has posted two successive readings below 50, which indicates contraction. Another weak reading is expected in July, with an estimate of 47.7.
  4. BoE Decision: Thursday, 11:00. The BOE is set to maintain the benchmark rate at 0.75% and the QE program at 435 billion pounds. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted unanimously to maintain this policy in the previous meeting and the same voting pattern will probably be repeated. If the Monetary Policy summary is on the dovish side, the pound could lose ground.
  5. Construction PMI: Friday, 8:30. Construction activity has been contracting, and fell to 43.1 in June, below expectations. The PMI is expected to change directions and move higher, with an estimate of 46.0.

* All times are GMT

GBP/USD Technical analysis

Technical lines from top to bottom:

1.2728 remained relevant last week.

1.2660 is next.

1.2590 (mentioned last week) has weakened in resistance following gains by GBP/USD last week. It was a swing low in September 2017.

The round number of 1.2535 remained relevant last week. Further down is 1.2420.

1.2330 has provided support since March 2017.

The round number of 1.22 was an important support level in December 2016.

1.2080 is the final support line for now.

I am bearish on GBP/USD

The pair has fallen some 2.5% in the month of July, and the downward trend could continue. Prime Minister Johnson takes over a divided Conservative party, and there is growing talk of a fall election if there the stalemate over Brexit continues. As well, if the BoE rate statement is dovish, investors could send the pound lower.

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Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.