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  • GBP/USD prints mild gains after snapping a three month rise in September.
  • Brexit optimism, US dollar weakness helps cable to battle the virus woes.
  • Tory government now has the sweeping powers to control COVID-19, EU’s Barnier sounds optimistic off-late.
  • UK Manufacturing PMI, speech from BOE’s Haldane and US ISM Manufacturing PMI can entertain traders ahead of Friday’s NFP.

GBP/USD juggles with the recovery moves from 1.2913 between 1.2930 and 1.2940 while heading into the London open on Thursday. In doing so, the Pound prints a four-day winning streak despite marking the biggest monthly losses in over a year during September. Coronavirus (COVID-19) resurgence pushes the UK towards defying the claims of “no national lockdowns”. Though, readiness to compromise on Brexit seems to have pushed the trade negotiation talks, which in turn keeps pair traders optimistic. Moving on, activity numbers from the UK and the US will be the key to watch while comments from the BOE’s Chief Economic Andy Haldane shouldn’t be missed as well.

Hidden compromises?

Having earlier roared with Internal Market Bill (IMB) and readiness to stay firm, the British policymakers seem to have relinquished controls over the auto industry to gain favor from their old neighbors from European Union (EU). This could have been the cause behind the recently upbeat tones of the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier.

On the other hand, virus woes pushed UK policymakers towards passing a bill in the Parliament that gives autonomy over controlling the pandemic. The pessimism gains strength as Britain’s top Medical officer Whitty said, as per Reuters, “COVID-19 accelerating quite rapidly in parts of UK”. Also, the US Food and Drug Administration’s inquiry into the AstraZeneca’s vaccine trials offers additional worries concerning the pandemic.

Not only the UK but the US government is also struggling, though with a different case of the stimulus. With Republicans’ sustained rejection of the Democratic demands, Wednesday’s planned voting on the stimulus bill got delayed by another one day. Though, the passage of the intermediate stopgap funding and comments from US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin keeps market players hopeful.

Given the off in China and stock trading halt Japan, Asian markets stay dull. As a result, S&P 500 Futures keep the early day’s mild gains while the US 10-year Treasury yields also gain 1.7 basis points to 0.69%.

Moving on, the second reading of the UK’s September month Manufacturing PMI is expected to confirm the 54.3 initial forecasts while BOE’s Haldane may continue negating the negative rates and help GBP/USD bulls. Though, the anticipated rise in the US ISM Manufacturing PMI, from 56.0 to 56.3, may join likely American aid package to recall the pair sellers.

Technical analysis

GBP/USD rises for the fourth consecutive day by crossing the 50-day EMA amid bullish MACD. Considering the momentum strength, the quote is expected to attack the descending trend line from September 10, at 1.2957 now. Though, any further upside by GBP/USD beyond 1.2957 will be probed by the 1.3000 psychological magnet. Meanwhile, GBP/USD weakness below the 50-day EMA level of 1.2920 can aim for a 50% Fibonacci retracement of June-September upside, at 1.2868.