The pound was hit by the Bank of England’s dovish hike last week and remains on lower ground. But will it continue falling? Here are two opinions:
Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:
GBP/USD: Symmetric Risks After The Sell-Off – Barclays
Barclays Capital FX Strategy Research discusses GBP/USD outlook, arguing that Sterling faces symmetric risks after last week’s sell-off.
“The gyrations of domestic politics in the UK will likely add downside risks to GBP this week, with the cabinet reshuffles in Westminster taking centre stage.
On the other hand, however, the market reaction to the BoE’s hike announcement last week seems to have neglected some of the hawkish messages of the Inflation Report and we would not be surprised to see some short-term rate re-pricing in the coming weeks, supporting GBP .
On the data front, we forecast industrial production to modestly increase in September (Friday, Barclays: 0.3% m/m, consensus: 0.3% m/m),” Barclays argues.
GBP/USD: Fading The ‘Carney Confusion’; Where To Target? – ING
ING FX Strategy Research discusses GBP/USD outlook in light of the pair’s price action after last week’s BoE meeting.
“We attribute the pound’s circa 1% knee-jerk move lower to markets pushing back their expectations for additional BoE rate hikes, although the overall level of tightening priced in has returned back to where it had been on average over October.
The bigger driver for GBP tends to be the overall level of tightening priced – and this remains data, and more importantly, Brexit-dependent.
On the Brexit front, negotiations are expected to resume – while the government may release its analysis on the Brexit ‘No Deal’ implications. Data wise, only industrial production and trade data to note (both Fri),” ING argues.
ING sees GBP/USD is mildly bullish on GBP/USD around current levels, sees the pair trading in 1.30-1.33 range this week, and around 1.35 in 1-month.
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