GBP/USD Forecast Dec. 8-12

The  British pound  moved higher earlier in the week  but couldn’t consolidate the gains and showed  modest losses  on the week. The pair closed at 1.5568. This week’s key event is Manufacturing Production.  Here is an outlook on the major events moving the  pound and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

In the US, Non-Farm Payrolls report was outstanding  with a 321K job gain in  November  and finally a bump in wages. This allowed the dollar to post gains late in the week against the pound. In the UK, PMIs were a mix and the BOE held the course with QE and interest rate levels.

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GBP/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it.

GBPUSDForecast Dec.8-12


  1. BOE Quarterly Bulletin:  Monday, 00:01. This report is considered a minor event and includes market research and analysis. A report that is more hawkish than expected is bullish for the pound.
  2. BRC Retail Sales Monitor: Tuesday, 00:01. This indicator looks at retail sales in BRC stores.   In October, the indicator posted a flat reading of 0.0%.
  3. Manufacturing Production:  Tuesday, 9:30. Manufacturing Production is the key event of the week. The indicator posted a gain of 0.4% last month, marking a 4-month high. The forecast for the upcoming release stands at 0.2%.
  4. 30-year Bond Auction:  Tuesday, Tentative. The yield on 30-year bonds has been moving lower, and the October auction posted a yield of 3.04%. Will the downward trend continue?
  5. NIESR GDP Estimate:  Tuesday, 15:00. This indicator is published monthly and helps analysts track official GDP, which is released only once a quarter. The indicator has been quite steady and has posted two straight gains of 0.7%.
  6. Trade Balance: Wednesday, 9:30. The British trade deficit unexpectedly widened in October to GBP 9.8 billion, above the estimate of 9.4 billion. The estimate for the November release stands at GBP 9.5 billion.
  7. RICS House Price Balance:  Thursday, 00:01. This indicator helps measure activity in the housing sector. Surveyors continue to report lower prices, as the indicator slipped to 20% last month, short of the estimate. The downward trend is expected to continue, with the estimate for the upcoming release standing at 15%.
  8. Construction Output:  Friday, 9:30. The indicator is a useful gauge of the strength of the UK construction sector. The indicator posted a gain of 1.8% in September, well short of the estimate of 3.7%.   The forecast for the October release is 0.8%.
  9. CB Leading Index:  Friday, 10:00. The index is based on  seven economic indicators, but is considered a minor event since most of the data has already been released. In October, the indicator declined 0.4%, the first decline since January.

* All times are GMT

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD  opened the week at 1.5611 and touched a  high of 1.5764. The pair then  reversed  directions, dropping to 1.5568  and closing at  this level, as support at 1.5539 (discussed last week) held firm.

Live chart of GBP/USD:

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Technical  lines from top to bottom

We  start with resistance at 1.6130. This line has  remained intact  since late October.

1.6002 is next. This line  is protecting  the psychologically important 1.60 level. This is followed by 1.5909.

1.5746  was tested  for a second straight week  as the pair posted sharp gains before retracting.  This line was an important support level in January 2013.

1.5625 is an immediate resistance line. It could face pressure if the pound moves higher.

1.5539 has weakened in support following the pound’s losses. It could see action early in the week.

1.5290 was a cushion in July 2013. It is the final support line for now.

I remain  bearish on GBP/USD.

The dollar could continue to ride the excellent jobs report we saw on Friday. These strong numbers  should help ease concerns about whether the Fed remains on track for a rate hike in the first half of 2014. The UK will need strong releases from Manufacturing Production and NIESR GDP Estimate, otherwise the pound could continue to lose ground.

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Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.