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Looking for the latest outlook, for the current week? Check out the section: British Pound Forecast

The Pound didn’t enjoy the American NFP, and finished lower once again. The upcoming week provides 6 events that will impact the Pound, with the unofficial Q4 GDP being the highlight. Here’s an outlook for the upcoming week in Britain, and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

GBP/USD chart with support and resistance lines marked on it. Click to enlarge:

GBP/USD Forecast

The rate decision turned into a non-event, and didn’t move the Pound. Next month’s decision will be more interesting, as the money allocated for the QE program will run out. So, let’s the review for the upcoming week. The technical analysis will follow:

  1. BRC Retail Sales Monitor: Published on Tuesday at midnight GMT. The British Retail Consortium beats the government’s official retail sales release by about 10 days. Although this data isn’t official, it gives a good indication on the volume of consumer spending and the whole economy. In the past 3 months, this indicator showed strong growth in sales volume. Last month’s 1.8% rise is expected to be followed by a modest rise this time.
  2. RICS House Price Balance: Published on Tuesday at midnight GMT. This measure of price trend in housing showed a rise in home prices in the past 4 months. A positive percentage means more regions are reporting a rise in prices. At 35%, this number is the highest in two years. It’s predicted to edge up once again to 38%.
  3. Trade Balance: Published on Tuesday at 9:30 GMT. Britain has a trade deficit of 7.1 billion according to last month’s release, which is about the first 10 years in 2009. The upcoming release is for November, and it’s expected to remain almost unchanged and drop to 6.9 billion.
  4. Manufacturing Production: Published on Wednesday at 9:30 GMT. This major economic indicator disappointed by remaining unchanged. It also a downwards revision of the previous month’s release. British production was rather unstable through 2009. A small rise is predicted this time – 0.3%.
  5. NIESR GDP Estimate: Published on Wednesday, probably at 15:00 GMT. This unofficial release of the GDP, has proved correct in the past. It’s published every month and supplies up to date GDP for the past three months. In last month’s release, it showed that the British economy grew by 0.2% in the three months ending in November. This gives some hope for seeing growth in Q4. This month’s release concludes Q4 and will be very interesting to watch.
  6. CB Leading Index: Published on Friday at 10:00 GMT. This composite index is based on many indicators that have already been released, but still has some impact. In the past 7 months, this index rose, usually by 1%. This was the exact scale of the past two months’ rise. A somewhat weaker result is predicted this time.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound began the week with attempt on the 1.6260 resistance line, but fell back down. It bottomed at 1.59 and then made another push up, bouncing off the 1.6110 resistance line this time.

So, looking up, we have the minor resistance line at 1.6110. Apart from Friday’s attempt, it worked in the past as a place where the Pound stopped during the big comeback. Higher, the 1.6260 line was also a support line in the past, and is stronger now.

Higher, I’ve added the 1.64 line on last week’s outlook. This was a peak in a few weeks ago, and also worked as a support line before that. Looking up, 1.6746 continues to be high point that the Pound failed to break several times, and is now a strong resistance line.

Looking down, 1.5720 remains the almighty support line for the Pound. It hasn’t traded below this line since May 2009. If the Pound loses this line, 1.5350 is out there in the distance.

My sentiment is bearish on GBP/USD

The future doesn’t look too bright. Even if the unofficial estimate shows that the British economy grew in Q4, it’s probably too little and too late. With the heavy deficit weighing on the Pound, the direction continues to be down.

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