GBP/USD Outlook Nov. 11-15

GBP/USD bounced back and crossed above the 1.60 level, gaining about one cent last week. The  pair closed at 1.6018.  This week’s key events include CPI, Claimant Count Change and  Retail Sales. Here is an outlook for the main events moving the pound, and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

British Construction and Services PMIs continued to look sharp, giving the pound a boost. The US dollar  made up some ground  late in the week as NFPs soared on Friday.

GBP/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:    

1. RICS House Price Balance: Tuesday, 00:01. This housing inflation indicator is an important gauge of the UK housing market. The index continues to  climb nicely and hit 54% last month. The upward trend is expected to continue, with an estimate of 59%.  
2. CPI:  Tuesday, 9:30. This key inflation indicator is the first major event of the week. CPI has   been very steady, with two consecutive readings of 2.7%. The markets are expecting a lower figure for October, with an estimate of 2.5%.
3. PPI Input: Tuesday, 9:30. The Producer Price Index Input has looked weak of late, with two straight declines. The September reading of -1.2% was well below the  estimate of -0.1%. The markets are expecting another decline in October, with an estimate of -0.3%.
4. RPI: Tuesday, 9:30. The Retail Price Index has been hovering slightly above the 3% level in recent releases. The markets are anticipating a slightly lower reading in October, with a forecast of 3.0%.
5. CB  Leading Index: Tuesday, 10:00. Leading Index is made of 7 indicators, but it is considered a minor event because most of the data has already been released. The index jumped 1.2% in September, a multi-year high. The markets will be hoping for another strong release this week.
6. Claimant Count Change: Wednesday, 9:30. This is one of the most important economic indicators, and can affect the movement of GBP/USD. The indicator continues to post declines, and posted an excellent reading in September of -41.7 thousand, easily beating the estimate of -24.3 thousand. The markets are expecting another strong release in October, with an estimate of -30.2 thousand. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain at 7.7%.
7. Average Earnings Index: Wednesday, 9:30. This consumer inflation indicator dropped to 0.7% last  month, missing the estimate of 1.0%. This marked a five-month low for the indicator. No change is expected in the October reading.
8. BOE Inflation Report: Wednesday, 10:30. The Inflation Report is a key release, issued every quarter. The report detail the Bank’s forecast for inflation and economic growth in the UK over the next 2 years. Governor Mark Carney will host a press conference following the report’s release.
9. Retail Sales: Thursday, 9:30. Retail Sales has had a bumpy road, showing some fluctuation. The previous release came in at 0.6%, edging past the estimate of 0.5%. The markets are bracing for a weak gain of just 0.2% for October.

Live chart of GBP/USD: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”GBPUSD” interval=”60″/]

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD opened the week at 1.5922. The pair dropped to a low of 1.5903, but then reversed directions and  climbed sharply, rising all the way to 1.6118, as resistance held firm at 1.6125 (discussed  last week).  The pair then lost ground on Friday, closing at 1.6018.

Technical lines from top to bottom

We start higher, with resistance at the round number of 1.6600. This key line has been tested only once since May 2011.

1.6475 is next. This line has held firm since August 2011. This is followed by 1.6343. This line was last breached when the pound dropped sharply in August 2011.

We next encounter resistance at 1.6247. This was a key resistance line in October and November 2012 and continues to provide strong resistance.

1.6125 held firm last week as the pound pushed above the 1.61 line before retracting. The line begins the week as strong resistance.

1.60, a key psychological barrier, remained intact at the end of the week.  However, it is a  weak line which could face strong  pressure early this week.  

1.5893 continues to provide support. The pair dropped close to this line as it tested the 1.59 level early in the week. With the pair closing the week above 1.60, this line has some breathing room.

1.5752 was breached in mid-September by the surging pound but has provided strong support since then.

1.5648 was an important resistance line since June, but has been providing support role since early September.

1.5550 is next. This line last saw action in mid-June.

1.5389 is our final support level for now. It is a strong line and has remained intact since August.

I am neutral on GBP/USD.

The UK economy continues to pick up steam, and this is good news for the pound, which is back above the key-1.60 level. Over in the US, NFP was a pleasant surprise, surging in October. This is bound to increase speculation about a December taper, which would be bullish for the US dollar.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
• For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
• For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar forecast.