GBP/USD Outlook Nov. 26-30

GBP/USD broke out of narrow range trading as the pair gained  over once cent on the week. The pair  pushed above the 1.60 line,  closing at 1.6024.  The upcoming week has eight events. Here is an outlook of the upcoming events, and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

GBP/USD pushed higher, bolstered by some solid numbers out of the UK last week. The Public Sector  deficit was down sharply, while Mortgage Approvals climbed higher.

Updates:  Tuesday’s UK data looked sharp.  Revised GDP in Q3  rose 1.0%, as expected. The gain was a nice rebound from the decline posted in Q2. Preliminary Business Investment jumped 3.7% in Q3, easily exceeding the estimate of 1.3%. Index of Services rose 1.3% in October. This was much better than the estimate ,which stood at -1.0%.  In  the quarterly Inflation Report Hearings, a BOE policymaker  noted that inflation resilience remained a major concern for the UK economy. The pound has edged higher, as GBP/USD was trading at 1.6048. Net Lending to Individuals disappointed the markets, declining by 0.3 billion pounds. The markets had anticipated a gain of 0.9B. Mortgage Approvals came in at 53 thousand, very close to the estimate of 52K. Nationwide HPI posted a flat 0.0%, below the forecast of 0.2%. M4 Money Supply remained steady at 0.2% for the third consecutive month. The estimate stood at 0.4%. The BOE released its Financial Stability Report. BOE governor Mervyn King held a press conference, and warned that  British banks may not have  set aside enough capital against future market dangers due to a failure to recognize  possible financial risks. The report  notes that “progress by banks in raising capital has slowed and investor confidence remains low”.CBI Realized Sales looked sharp, as the index rose   to 33 points, a five-month high. The  markets had expected a gain of just 19 points. GfK Consumer Confidence will be released on Friday. The markets are braced for another reading deep in negative territory. The pound is steady, as GBP/USD was trading at 1.6225.

GBP/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:    

1. Nationwide  HPI: 27th-30th. The housing indicator rose 0.6% in October, one of its best performances this year. However, the markets are predicting a smaller gain this month, with an estimate of 0.2%.
2. Revised GDP: Tuesday, 9:30. This key indicator has reeled off negative readings for three consecutive quarters. However, the markets are expecting a rebound in Q3, with an estimate of a 1.0% gain. Will the indicator reverse the downward trend?
3. Preliminary Business Investment: Tuesday, 9:30. This quarterly business indicator has shown quite a bit of volatility, with a weak -1.5% reading in Q2. The markets are expecting an improvement for Q3, with an  estimate standing at 1.3%.  
4. Net Lending to Individuals: Thursday, 9:30. Net Lending to Individuals is closely correlated to UK consumer spending and confidence, as increased debt signifies consumers are opening their pocketbooks and making more purchases. In October, the indicator easily beat the estimate, rising sharply  to 1.7 billion pounds. The  forecast for the upcoming release stands at 0.9B. Will the indicator again surprise the markets with a strong reading?
5. BOE Financial Stability Report: Thursday, 10:30. The BOE releases this report twice a year. Analysts will be carefully combing the report, which examines the current financial system and looks at potential risks to financial stability. A report which is more hawkish than expected is bullish for the pound.
6. BOE Governor Mervyn King Speaks: Thursday, 10:30. Governor King will hold a press conference  in London about the Financial Stability Report. The markets will be looking for clues as to future monetary policy, and traders should note that there often is volatility in the currency markets during the Governor’s speech.
7. CBI Realized Sales: Thursday, 11:00.  This index is based on a survey of retailers and  wholesalers.  The index shot up in October, posting a reading of 30 points. The estimate for this month is lower, but still respectable at 19 points.
8. GfK Consumer Confidence: Friday, 00:01. Consumer Confidence in the UK remains extremely weak, and is a serious impediment to economic growth. The previous release came in at   an awful -30 points, and the markets are expecting  an identical figure  in the November reading.

*All times are GMT

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD opened the week at 1.5898, and touched a low of 1.5883. The pair then pushed to a high of 1.6051, as the resistance line of 1.6060 (discussed last week) held firm.  GBP/USD    closed the week at 1.6024.

Technical lines from top to bottom:

With the pound improving, we begin at higher levels. There is resistance at the round number of 1.66. Next, is 1.6475. This line was last tested in August 2011. This is followed by resistance at 1.6343. This line was last breached when the pound dropped sharply in August 2011. We next encounter resistance at 1.6247. Below, is the line of 1.6122, which saw a lot of action in October. Next, there is resistance at 1.6060. This line  held firm as the  pound showed some  strength late in the trading week.  

GBP/USD is receiving weak support at 1.5992. This is followed by 1.5930, which was in a support role last week. Next, there is support at 1.5850. This line has strengthened as the pair trades at higher levels. This is followed by support at 1.5750. This line has held firm since August. Below, there is support at 1.5648.

We next encounter resistance at the round figure of 1.5600. Next, there is support at 1.5530. This line was last breached in August, when the pound started its impressive summer rally. The final  support line for now  is 1.5414, which  has held firm since  July.

I am bullish on GBP/USD.

After a two-month slide, the pound  finally reversed  its downward trend against  US dollar. Will  the pair continue to push  higher? The UK  posted some strong data last week, and the bumpy US recovery seems to headed in the right direction lately. If there is progress in the looming fiscal cliff crisis, investors may show more  of an appetite for  non-US purchases, and the pound could make further gains against the greenback.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
• For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
• For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar forecast.