Every opinion poll regarding Scottish independence is important for the British pound, and when a poll shows a majority for a No campaign, the pound rallies. Just.
Cable cannot close the gap, nor even rise above the weekly highs. The pair did manage to climb back and settle in a higher range, but it doesn’t look strong enough.
The latest poll from the Daily Record shows that 53% will vote No and 47% Yes among those who are expected to vote. The same Survation poll showed the same margin also two months. The most important pollster seems to be YouGov – it has critically triggered the weekend gap.
In addition, political and economic pressure continues, with RBS hinting it will relocate to London on Scottish independence.
Analysis: what the betting odds imply for GBP/USD
So where are we now? Here is the chart, an explanation follows:
The new range is 1.6180 to 1.6230: The bottom of the line as been a swing high earlier in the week and also the low point after the move higher following the poll.
The high end of the range was the initial high early in the week and also the swing high after the poll was released.
So, we have a clear range of 1.6180 to 1.6230. Above, we have last week’s low of 1.6280, followed by 1.6315. On the downside, we have 1.6150 and 1.6050, before the critical line of 1.60.
For more, see the GBP to USD forecast.
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