The FX market did not go far for the last few sessions as traders await the FOMC meeting minutes scheduled for today at 19.00GMT. However, we can see some USD gains at the start of the European session but still no major break, and it may stay unchanged until the big event. But, based on the wave count, there could be a real battle between commodity currencies vs. others as the USD seems to be positioned for a weak move against the AUD and the NZD but still moving up against the JPY, and the GBP. EURUSD and USDCHF are sideways, but the direction remains unchanged as long as we are above Monday’s extremes.
GBPUSD 30min Elliott Wave Analysis
Yesterday, we were looking for a reversal down on GBPUSD, from around the 1.5670/90 area and so far it works very well, as pair already fell beneath 1.5617 so looks like wave (v) is underway to a new low, possibly towards 1.5550, but 1.5656 and more important 1.5676 must stay in place.
AUDUSD 1h Elliott Wave Analysis
AUDUSD is also down today, but based on the wave count, we see the pair now at a very interesting support area, around 0.8620/40. Here we see a 61.8% Fib. retracement level as well as the former wave (iv) so we would not be surprised if the pair would turn back up in the sessions ahead. In fact, a decline from 0.8784 is in three legs so it can be treated as a correction. A rise above the upper trendline and through 0.8746 will make a room for a rally above 0.8794 this week. The invalidation level is at 0.8538.
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