GBP/USD: Trading the British Construction PMI September 2013


British Construction PMI Index is based on a survey of purchasing managers in the UK construction industry. Respondents are surveyed for their view of a wide range of business conditions, including employment, new orders, prices and inventories. A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the pound.

Here are all the details, and 5 possible outcomes for GBP/USD.

Published on Tuesday at 8:30 GMT.

Indicator Background

Construction PMI has been rising steadily, and climbed to 54.6 points in August, well above the estimate of 54.6 points. The markets are expecting the upward trend to continue, with an estimate of 55.2 points.

Sentiments and levels

The US Federal Reserve is keeping mum as to when it might begin QE tapering, but speculation is increasing that the Fed could make a move in September. A well, market sentiment remains positive about the US economy, so the dollar could post further gains against the pound this week. British PMIs could have a major impact on the direction of GBP/USD this week. Thus the overall sentiment continues to be bearish on GBP/USD towards this release.

Technical levels, from top to bottom: 1.5832, 1.5752, 1.5648, 1.5550, 1.5484 and 1.5350.

5 Scenarios

  1. Within expectations: 53.0 to 57.0: In such a case, GBP/USD is likely to rise within range, with a small chance of breaking higher.
  2. Above expectations: 57.1 to 60.0: An unexpected higher reading can send the pair above one resistance line.
  3. Well above expectations: Above 60.0. The likelihood of a sharp expansion is low. Such an outcome could prop up the GBP, and a second resistance line might be broken as a result.
  4. Below expectations: 50.0 to 52.9: A sharper decrease than forecast could push the pair below one support level.
  5. Well below expectations: Below 50.0: A reading below the 50 point level could push downwards on the pound, and GBP/USD could break a second support level.

For more about the GBP, see the GBP/USD forecast.

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About Author

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.


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