The UK Claimant Count Change measures the change in the number of people claiming unemployment benefits. Along with the unemployment rate, which is released at the same time, it provides a snapshot of the UK employment situation and could affect the direction of GDP/USD.
Update: UK jobless claims jump by 9.8K – GBP/USD suffers
Here are the details and 5 possible outcomes for GBP/USD.
Published on Wednesday at 9:30 GMT.
Indicator Background
UK Claimant Count Change is closely monitored, as the indicator is one of the most important economic indicators. A reading which is lower than the market forecast is bullish for the pound.
The indicator posted a small gain of 0.7 thousand in September, lower than expected. Another small gain is predicted in October, with an estimate of 1.9 thousand.
Sentiment and Levels
The US economy continues to move in the right direction and a Trump victory has pushed the dollar upwards. As well, the Fed is expected to raise rates in December, which is bullish for the dollar. At the same time, the UK economy is steady, inflation is higher and the BoE held rates earlier this month. So, the overall sentiment is neutral on GBP/USD towards this release.
Technical levels from top to bottom: 1.2718, 1.2620, 1.2447, 1.2272 and 1.2130
5 Scenarios
- Within expectations: 0.0K to +4.0K: In this scenario, GBP/USD could show some slight movement, but it is likely to remain within range, not breaking any levels.
- Above expectations: -4.0K to -0.1K: A drop in jobless claims would mark a positive sign of the health in the British economy and could send the pair above one resistance level.
- Well above expectations: Below -4.0K: In this scenario, two resistance lines could be broken.
- Below expectations: +4.1K to +8.0K: A weak reading could push the GBP/USD downward, with one support level at risk.
- Well below expectations: Above +8.0K: A significant rise in jobless claims could result in GBP/USD breaking below two support levels.
For more on the pound, see the GBP/USD forecast.
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