UK Retail Sales is considered one of the most important economic indicators. A reading that is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the British pound.
Here are all the details, and 5 possible outcomes for GBP/USD.
Published on Thursday at 8:30 GMT.
Indicator Background
Retail Sales is the primary gauge of consumer spending, a critical component of economic growth. An unexpected reading can have a sharp impact on the movement of GBP/USD.
Retail Sales took a downturn in February, posting a decline of -0.4%. However, this beat the estimate of -0.7%. Another decline is expected in the March report, with an estimate of -0.1%.
Sentiments and levels
Janet Yellen has poured cold water on an April hike after some recent speculation that the Fed would make a move. With the markets unsure of the monetary plans of the BoE and the Fed, the dollar has lost its divergence advantage, at least for now. So, the overall sentiment is neutral on GBP/USD towards this release.
Technical levels, from top to bottom: 1.4562, 1.4413, 1.4297, 1.4148 and 1.40.
5 Scenarios
- Within expectations: -0.4% to +0.2%: In such a case, the pound is likely to rise within range, with a small chance of breaking higher.
- Above expectations: 0.3% to 0.8%: An unexpected higher reading can send GBP/USD above one resistance line.
- Well above expectations: Above 0.8%. Such an outcome would likely push the pair upwards, and a second resistance line might be broken as a result.
- Below expectations: -0.9% to -0.5%: A weak reading could push GBP/USD below one level of support.
- Well below expectations: Below -0.9%: A sharp contraction by the indicator could push the pound lower and break a second support level.
For more on the pound, see the GBP/USD forecast.
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