US Final GDP is a key release and is published each quarter. GDP reports measure production and growth of the economy, and are considered by analysts as one the most important indicators of economic activity. A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the dollar.
Here are all the details, and 5 possible outcomes for EUR/USD.
Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT.
Indicator Background
US Final GDP is the final of three GDP reports. Traders should pay close attention to this GDP release, as an unexpected reading could quickly affect the direction of EUR/USD.
Preliminary GDP, which preceded Final GDP, posted a gain of 1.1% in Q2, matching the estimate. The estimate for Final GDP for Q2 stands at 1.3%.
Sentiments and levels
The Fed made didn’t raise rates, but its decision was a “hawkish hold”, as a December hike is a strong possibility. It’s the opposite story for ECB, which may have to adopt further easing. The greenback also has the safe-haven advantage, becoming more important as the US elections get closer and the race is tight. So, the overall sentiment is bearish on EUR/USD towards this release.
Technical levels, from top to bottom: 1.1375, 1.1335, 1.1230, 1.1190, 1.1070 and 1.10
5 Scenarios
- Within expectations: 1.0% to 1.6%: In such a scenario, EUR/USD is likely to rise within range, with a small chance of breaking higher.
- Above expectations: 1.6% to 2.0%: An unexpected higher reading can push the pair below one support line.
- Well above expectations: Above 2.1%: A strong reading would likely boost the dollar, and the pair could break below a second support line as a result.
- Below expectations: 1.1% to 1.5%: In this scenario, EUR/USD could push above one resistance level.
- Well below expectations: Below 1.1%. A poor reading could result in the pair breaking above a second resistance line.
For more on the euro, see the EUR/USD forecast.
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