Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING, provides his take on the German trade balance data released today, showing that surplus widened to €19.4 billion in December from €18.9 billion in November.
Key quotes:
“German exports (seasonally and calendar adjusted) increased by 1.5% month-on-month in December, from 0.3% MoM in November. Imports increased by 1.2% MoM, from -1.3% MoM in November. Not adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects, exports in 2018 were some 3% higher than in 2017. Interestingly, despite all trade war fears, the export sector didn’t just grow in 2018 but probably contributed positively to the economy’s fourth quarter GDP growth.”
“Looking ahead, the balancing act for the German export sector will continue. While the temporary problems in the automotive sector will gradually be resolved (even though a WLTP 2.0 is approaching) and should boost exports, the risks and uncertainties from outside the eurozone are clearly the make-it-or-break-it factor for the export sector.”
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