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According to analysts at TD Securities, German inflation has been incredibly volatile for the last 6 months, making it much more difficult to forecast.

Key Quotes

“We look for HICP to fall from 1.0% y/y in August to 0.8% y/y in September (mkt: 1.0%), its lowest level since November 2016. Underlying that, we look for core inflation to edge a tenth higher, though leaving it below 1.0% y/y for the third month in a row, but for slightly lower contributions from food and energy prices. This morning’s regional German CPI data is consistent with our downside call.”