Global economy to stage impressive recovery amid vaccine optimism – Reuters poll


Thanks to a strong recovery momentum building up in most major economies, the global economy is set to rebound from its coronavirus slump at the fastest pace since 1970, the latest Reuters poll of 500 economists showed.

Key findings

“That optimism was largely led by the widely expected vaccine-driven recovery, massive liquidity injections, unprecedented fiscal support – primarily by the United States.”

“But 2021 growth views for 55% of 44 economies polled on were upgraded from three months ago, led by the US economy – which was predicted to mark the fastest annual expansion since 1984 – and China, set to return to pre-crisis levels this year.“

“Over 85% of economists, or 152 of 178, in response to an additional question said the recovery would be faster than previously expected or about the same pace versus the remaining 26 predicting a slower pace of rebound.”

“Despite those upgrades to economic growth, the job market recovery was expected to lag, with unemployment rates not forecast to return to pre-crisis levels this year or next for most advanced economies polled on.”

“Following massive stimulus and the pandemic-led supply constraints, the 2021 inflation outlook for over 70% of 44 economies polled on was upgraded from previous surveys, with over 80% of 207 economists answering a question saying risks to their already elevated forecasts skewed more to the upside.”

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