Analysts at RBS point out that global trade growth has been slowing, but other factors are at play, namely cooler economic growth in the euro area.
“Businesses in the US are reporting higher prices for some goods that have had tariffs slapped on them. But it’s small beer. Higher staff salaries (tightening labour market) and fuel bills are raising costs for businesses.”
“China’s economy is slowing. Tariffs biting? Not necessarily. The authorities are reining in credit again. As before, that hurts growth. But what if things got really bad? A 25% tariff on everything imported in every country could wipe between 2 and 3% from global GDP, about two thirds of a year’s growth.”