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  • Gold is sliding in Asia with bars getting behind the move below $1,700.
  • Risks, however, favour an upside bias in the precious metals.

Gold is currently trading at $1,698.80, within a range of $1,696 and $1,703.81 with a tendency to move lower at the time of writing. The price is building a case for the downside having tested below $,1700 is Asia while risk appetite starts to improve again. 

Overnight, gold futures ended higher for the second session in a row. Risk-off was the starting theme for the week in response to Mike Pompeo, Secretary of State, interview and accusations on ABC News reported on here: What you need to know as markets open: Pompeo and Trump ratcheted up US and China tensions.

The Global Times (GT), quick to rebuttal, wrote an editorial here: Pompeo’s anti-China bluff strategy reveals all-or-nothing mentality to fool US voters – GT. However, the WHO has confirmed it has not received evidence from Washington about its speculation about Wuhan laboratory. Meanwhile, Trump’s intelligence agencies say they are still examining a notion put forward by the president and aides that the pandemic may have resulted from an accident at a Chinese lab. 

Nevertheless, the risks are mounting and China faces a growing backlash from critics who have called to hold Beijing accountable for its role in the pandemic. Reuters reported that an internal Chinese report warns that Beijing faces a rising wave of hostility in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak that could tip relations with the United States into a confrontation.

“Gold continues to hold resiliently, quickly rebounding after prices fell below $1700/oz once again, lending strength to our view that the left tail has shrunk. But, weak economic conditions and disinflationary trends could elevate real rates and keep a cap on interest in the yellow metal in the very near term, as noted by decreased trading volumes and open interest, despite a positive outlook,” analysts at TD Securities explained. 

Demand to continue to flow to the yellow metal

“Demand should continue to flow to the yellow metal,” the analysts explained in the following hypothesis: 

Looking forward, as we try to discern the forest from the trees, when the dust settles, investment demand should continue to flow to the yellow metal.

Indeed, unlimited QE, trillions of liquidity injections and a continued suppression of real rates, and evidence that points to a macroeconomic context which could imply a situation where many central banks need to maintain interest rates in negative territory, simply to avoid their economies from contracting, all suggest the balance of risks remains to the upside for gold.

This scenario will also prove beneficial for the more industrial precious metals when the economy begins its recovery, but for the time being, the previously mentioned weakness in our commodity demand impulse should see those metals remain underperformers in the precious metals complex. That being said, we don’t expect any significant changes in trend follower positioning.

Gold levels

  • Gold Price Analysis: Rejected above $1,710