Search ForexCrunch
  • Prediction by WHO raised concerns over the economic recovery, boosting safe-haven asset demand.
  • XAU/USD pair has closed in a tweezers top pattern below the $1,780 level. 
  • Forex trading market participants may sell below the $1,778 level to target the $1,770 and $1,764 levels.

Gold prices closed at $1778.20 after reaching a high of $1781.90 and a low of $1753.00. Gold revived its bullish stance on Friday and turned green for the day after rising by more than 1% in a single day. The gold price forecast remains bearish below the $1,780 level today.

If you are interested in trading XAU/USD with forex robots, check out our guide.

The rising prices of gold could be attributed to the latest release of US consumer sentiment that dropped sharply in August to its lowest level in a decade. The lower-than-expected consumer sentiment calmed investors’ concerns over the Federal Reserve’s early tapering of asset purchases.

University of Michigan about the consumer sentiment index could pause Fed policymakers

The unexpected reading from the University of Michigan about the consumer sentiment index could pause Fed policymakers if it translates into a dent in economic activity. The Federal Reserve has been getting closer to deciding when to start pulling back the extraordinary stimulus that it put in place to shield the economy from the coronavirus pandemic.

The US stock market slipped immediately, and gold prices gained around the market amid the declining US Treasury yields and the US dollar. The US Dollar Index that measures the greenback’s value against the basket of six major currencies fell on Friday to 92.47, and the US Treasury Yields on a 10-year note also declined on Friday to 1.280%.

Weaker UoM Consumer Sentiment Underpinds Gold Prices

At 17:30 GMT, the import prices for July dropped by 0.3% against the forecasted 0.6% and weighed on the US dollar. This added strength to gold prices. Moreover, August’s Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment also declined to 70.2 against the predicted 81.2 and weighed on the US dollar. Whereas, the Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations dropped in August to 4.6% from the previous 4.7%.

The economy is still projected to grow this year at the fastest pace in four decades after falling into a brief recession in 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic. However, the recovery has shown some signs of cooling off with the dismal consumer sentiment that dropped in August and weighed on the US dollar, pushing gold prices higher.

Meanwhile, the World Health Organization has issued a warning that global coronavirus cases could pass 300 million by early next year if the pandemic continues at its current pace. The agency also called on world leaders to slow the spread by providing more testing supplies, vaccines, and treatments to poorer nations.

Director of WHO General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus Boost Safe-haven appeal

The Director of WHO General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus remarks on Delta variants of covid. The number of highly transmissible delta variants and the total number of unreported coronavirus cases make the actual tally much higher than the reported.

The projection from the agency came after the WHO reported 200 million coronavirus cases globally and six months after the world cases reached 100 million. This prediction by WHO raised concerns over the economic recovery and pushed gold prices higher due to its safe-haven status.

Gold Price Forecast
XAU/USD Daily Chart

Gold Price Forecast – Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1799.46 1781.21

1778.78 1782.28

1777.71 1782.96

Pivot Point: 1780.53

Gold Price Forecast – Daily Technical Analysis: Pivot Point $1,780 to Push it Lower

The XAU/USD price forecast remains bearish below the $1,780 intraday pivot point resistance level. For now, the yellow metal gold is trading with a slight bearish bias, gaining immediate support at a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $1,772.

On the hourly chart, the XAU/USD pair has closed in a tweezers top pattern below the $1,780 level. The closing of candles below this level supports a selling trend in gold. Whereas, the bullish crossover at this level could lead gold prices further higher to 1,792 and 1,801 levels.

On the bearish side, a breakout of the 61.8% Fibonacci support level could trigger further sell-off until 1,764 and 1,753 levels. The 50 day EMA (exponential moving average – red line) supported gold at the 1,775 level. However, the gold price is now exhibiting a bearish crossover, demonstrating the chances of a solid selling trend in gold.

Lastly, the leading indicator, Stochastic RSI, has entered the oversold zone as it holds at 2.62 level. This demonstrates that bulls can enter the market at any time, as bears may trigger profit-taking. Yet, we can take a buy trade in gold as it’s breaking above an ascending trendline on a 2-hour chart.

Therefore, the Forex trading market participants may sell below the $1,778 level to target the $1,770 and $1,764 levels. Alternatively, buying trades can be seen in the case of a failure to break below $1,770 levels. All the best!

Looking to trade forex now? Invest at eToro!

67% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Expert score

5

Etoro - Best For Beginner & Experts

  • 0% Commission and No stamp Duty
  • Regulated by US,UK & International Stock
  • Copy Successfull Traders
Your capital is at risk.