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  • Gold prices have dropped $22.00, 1.20%, on the release of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate and statement.  
  • US Fed funds futures price in full rate hike by April 2023.
  • All eyes now turn to the Fed’s chairman, Jerome Powell, speaking on a presser.  
  • Federal Reserve preview: First up, then down? Playbook for trading the Fed
  • Fed Press Conference: Chairman Jerome Powell speech live stream – June 16

Gold prices have dropped some 22  bucks on the Federal Reserve’s hawkish statement and interest rate decision.  

At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading at $1,839.65, lowest since 12th May and now at daily support structure.

Gold prices are driven by the US Treasury yield curve and the performance of the US dollar in the main and have been more recently linked to the performance of the Us stock market.

Immediately on the release of the statement, the US stock market is down a touch, the US dollar has started to climb by 0.44% to 90.94 in the DXY, the highest since 13th May,   while the yield on the US 10-year has also perked up to 1.5310% risking 3%,  but the US 5-year yields have jumped to 0.837% from 0.780%.

However, there is nothing dramatic in the immediate aftermath and the focus will now be on the Fed’s chairman, Jerome Powell.  

Key notes on the Fed, so far

  • Benchmark interest rate unchanged; target range stands at 0.00% – 0.25%.
  • The interest rate on excess reserves raised to 0.15% from 0.10%
  • The median projection shows two hikes in 2023, which suggests FOMC has overall shifted more hawkish.  
  • US Fed funds futures price in a full rate hike by April 2023.

Overall, this is seen as positive for the greenback, bearish for gold  and sets up an  AugustJackson Hole taper announcement.

It will be especially important for forex volatility over the summer months that has been at the lowest levels in over a year:

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Jerome Powell may talk the hawkish reaction down in his presser which can be seen live here:

Gold reaction