Gold Price Forecast: Ready to Trade $1,795 Breakout?

• Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Keeping Gold in 1,810 – 1,795
• Covid19 and Fundamentals Review – Gold Remains Choppy at $1,800
• Forex trading market participants may enter additional sell positions below 1,795 today, targeting 1,789 and 1,781.

Gold closed at $1797.30 after placing a high of $1811.95 and a low of $1796.05. It remained depressed for the 9th consecutive session and fell under the $1800 level on Monday as the investors turned cautious before the Fed meeting for July. Gold price forecast remains mixed ahead of the Fed Monetary policy meeting.

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 Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Keeping Gold in 1,810 – 1,795  

The Federal Reserve (FED) is expected to hold its monthly monetary policy meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday. The Fed is expected to release a monthly policy statement and the remarks from Fed chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday. While on Thursday, an essential report of Gross Domestic Product from the United States will be released to first look at the pandemic recovery made in the second quarter.

Investor’s believed that loss in gold remained limited. It’s because yellow metal was gaining support from a dovish European Central Bank, higher inflation, a large fiscal stimulus, and a currently accommodative Fed. Both ECB and Fed have stated that they will keep their monetary policy accommodative for the time.

Now expectations are that any hint about tapering of asset purchases from the Federal Reserve would trigger further downward pressure in the yellow metal. Yesterday, the yellow metal dropped and remained on a red note despite weaker U.S. dollar and a slight dip in the U.S. Treasury Yields.

The U.S. Dollar Index that gauges the greenback value versus the basket of six major currencies slipped to 92.53 level. Thus, gold remains supported as a weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for foreign investors and boosts its demand. The U.S. Treasury Yields on a 10-year note also fell to 1.221 before closing the day at 1.295. It also kept the greenback weak for the day.  

Covid19 and Fundamentals Review – Gold Remains Choppy at $1,800

On the data front, at 19:00 GMT, the New Home Sales in June dropped to 676K against the expected 800K. It weighed on the U.S. dollar that limited the decline in yellow metal prices.

On the coronavirus front, the total number of cases in the whole world reached 195,276,586. At the same time, the death count sits at 4,181,842. The Delta variant was spreading fast throughout the globe, forcing many nations to re-impose lockdown restrictions.  

China, Thailand, and Malaysia reported a record number of infections, whereas South Korea faced an unexpected delivery issue of the Moderna vaccine.

In the United States, the political leaders were giving orders to government officials to get vaccinated. If not, they would have to get tested regularly. A White House official also said that the country would not lift restrictions at this point amid the rising concerns over the Delta variant.

Meanwhile, Israel was considering giving a third shot of the Pfizer & BioNTech vaccine to its elderly population to have strong immunity against the Delta variant.  

The government of Libya imposed a two-week curfew in some local councils. All these concerns raised from the Delta variant of coronavirus added further to the risk-off market sentiment and kept loss in yellow metal limited.

Gold Price Forecast – Technical Levels: Choppy Range $1,800 – $1,795

Support Resistance

1791.59 1807.49

1785.87 1817.67

1775.69 1823.39

Pivot Point: 1801.77

Gold Price Forecast – Technical Analysis: Triangle Pattern Supports at 1,795

Gold price forecast hasn’t changed a lot as it consolidates with a neutral bias at 1,797 levels. Gold’s narrow trading range of 1,809 – 1,790 levels is still intact as investors didn’t find any solid reason to trigger a breakout. A bearish breakout of 1,790 levels can expose gold price towards the 1,774 level.  

On the higher side, the 50 periods EMA is extending resistance at 1,809 levels. An indicator like Stocashtic is tossing above and below 50, suggesting indecision among investors. The investors are looking for a significant fundamental reason to trigger a breakout.

 A bullish breakout of 1,810 levels exposes gold prices towards 1,822 and 1,834 levels. Alternatively, the breakout of 1,790 levels exposes precious metal towards 1,774 levels.  

Forex trading  market participants may enter additional sell positions below 1,795 today, targeting 1,789 and 1,781. Alternatively, closing above 1,795 can lead the gold price towards 1,800 and 1,810 levels. All the best!

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